Practical derivation of operational dike failure probabilities

Probability forecasts for natural loads, such as river discharge or wind speed, allow deriving predictive dike failure probabilities within a future time interval, the so-called operational dike failure probabilities. The operational dike failure probabilities can be used to assess the safety of dik...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Reliability engineering & system safety 2013-05, Vol.113, p.122-130
Main Authors: Wojciechowska, Karolina, Kok, Matthijs
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Buildings. Public works
Dams and subsidiary installations
Deltas
Derivation
Dike failure probability
Dikes
Discharge
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
Failure
Flooding
Fracture mechanics (crack, fatigue, damage...)
Fundamental areas of phenomenology (including applications)
Hydraulic constructions
Hydrology
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Operational research and scientific management
Operational research. Management science
Overflow
Physics
Probability forecast
Reliability theory. Replacement problems
Rivers
Safety
Solid mechanics
Structural and continuum mechanics
Wave run-up
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Summary:Probability forecasts for natural loads, such as river discharge or wind speed, allow deriving predictive dike failure probabilities within a future time interval, the so-called operational dike failure probabilities. The operational dike failure probabilities can be used to assess the safety of dikes and can support decision making in the face of flooding. In this article, a practical framework for deriving the operational dike failure probabilities is introduced. The framework is based on a presently applied technique that is used to estimate the annual dike failure probabilities in the Netherlands. The framework is applied to a dike located in the delta of the river Vecht, providing probability forecasts for water levels and waves at the dike and the operational dike failure probabilities. Several aspects of the framework are also analysed, giving insight into the properties and accuracy of the method. ► Probability forecasts for loads entail operational dike failure probabilities. ► Operational dike failure probabilities can support decision making. ► The method is a simple approach to estimate operational dike failure probabilities.
ISSN:0951-8320
1879-0836
DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2012.12.022