Bayesian Decision-Network Modeling of Multiple Stakeholders for Reef Ecosystem Restoration in the Coral Triangle

• Published in: Conservation biology 2013-06, Vol.27 (3), p.459-469
• Main Authors: VARKEY, DIVYA A., PITCHER, TONY J., McALLISTER, MURDOCH K., SUMAILA, RASHID S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adaptation, Physiological; Animals; Bayes Theorem; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian influence diagram; Biodiversity; Caves; Chiroptera - physiology; Conservation Focus: Human Dimensions of Coral Reefs; Conservation of Natural Resources; conservation trade-offs; Coral Reefs; Corals; Decision Support Techniques; diagrama de influencia Bayesiano; Ecopath con Ecosim; Ecopath with Ecosim; Ecosystem models; Ecosystem services; Ecosystem studies; Ecosystems; Fisheries; Fisheries management; Fishery economics; Fishing; Marine conservation; Microclimate; Models, Theoretical; pros y contras de la conservación; Raja Ampat; Revenue; Tourism; Tropical Climate
• ISSN: 0888-8892; 1523-1739
• DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12036

Proposals for marine conservation measures have proliferated in the last 2 decades due to increased reports of fishery declines and interest in conservation. Fishers and fisheries managers have often disagreed strongly when discussing controls on fisheries. In such situations, ecosystem-based models and fisheries-stock assessment models can help resolve disagreements by highlighting the trade-offs that would be made under alternative management scenarios. We extended the analytical framework for modeling such trade-offs by including additional stakeholders whose livelihoods and the value they place on conservation depend on the condition of the marine ecosystem. To do so, we used Bayesian decision-network models (BDNs) in a case study of an Indonesian coral reef fishery. Our model included interests of the fishers and fishery managers; individuals in the tourism industry; conservation interests of the state, nongovernmental organizations, and the local public; and uncertainties in ecosystem status, projections of fisheries revenues, tourism growth, and levels of interest in conservation. We calculated the total utility (i.e., value) of a range of restoration scenarios. Restricting net fisheries and live-fish fisheries appeared to be the best compromise solutions under several combinations of settings of modeled variables. Results of our case study highlight the implications of alternate formulations for coral reef stakeholder utility functions and discount rates for the calculation of the net benefits of alternative fisheries management options. This case study may also serve as a useful example for other decision analyses with multiple stakeholders. Las propuestas para medidas de la conservación marina han proliferado en las últimas 2 décadas debido al incremento en los reportes de disminución de la pesca y el interés en la conservación. Los pescadores y los administradores de las pesquerías frecuentemente se encuentran en desacuerdo cuando se discuten los controles sobre las pesquerías. En tales situaciones, los modelos basados en ecosistemas y los modelos de evaluación de valores de las pesqueras pueden ayudar a resolver discrepancias al resaltar los pros y contras que habría bajo escenarios de manejo alternativos. Extendimos el marco analítico del modelado de dichos pros y contras al incluir actores adicionales cuyas formas de vida y el valor que le dan a la conservación dependen de la condición del ecosistema marino. Para ello, utilizamos modelos de r