Iran's oil development scenarios by 2025

Energy resources in Iran consist of the fourth largest oil reserves and the second largest natural gas reserves in the world. At present, due to political reasons, the investment trend does not go over well. Based on the Fifth Development Strategy, Iran needs $200 billion of investment in the countr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy policy 2013-05, Vol.56, p.612-622
Main Authors: Abbaszadeh, Payam, Maleki, Abbas, Alipour, Mohammad, Maman, Yaser Kanani
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Economic data
Energy
Energy consumption
Energy economics
Energy policy
Energy resources
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasts
Foreign investment
Fossil fuels and derived products
Future
General, economic and professional studies
Geopolitics
Industrial investment
Industry
Investments
Iran
Middle East
Natural gas
Oil
Oil exploration
Oil resources
Parliament
Petroleum industry
Production
Scenarios
Studies
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Summary:Energy resources in Iran consist of the fourth largest oil reserves and the second largest natural gas reserves in the world. At present, due to political reasons, the investment trend does not go over well. Based on the Fifth Development Strategy, Iran needs $200 billion of investment in the country's first industry (i.e. oil), and given the objectives of the perspective document, the country needs more than $500 billion investment during the next 15 years. This paper examined Iran's energy status. Afterwards, oil future scenarios which developed by Research center of Iranian parliament, have been analyzed. Then four scenarios that express different modes of production and consumption are developed, namely: Thunder, Behemoth, Snowman, and Poor Addict. Finally, a comprehensive analysis for achieving the secure and sustainable future on the geopolitical, Geo-economic and Geo-cultural situation is presented. ► Iran's energy state is evaluated. ► Oil future scenarios which developed by Iranian parliament, have been analyzed. ► 4 scenarios that express different modes of production and consumption are developed. ► Comprehensive analysis on the geopolitical, geo-economic and geo-cultural situation. ► Recommendations to Iran's energy policy framework.
ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.026