The Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific through Data Mining. Part I: Tropical Cyclone Recurvature

• Published in: Journal of applied meteorology and climatology 2013-06, Vol.52 (6), p.1394-1416
• Main Authors: Zhang, Wei, Leung, Yee, Chan, Johnny C. L.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Algorithms; Carts; Circulation patterns; Construction; Cyclones; Data analysis; Data mining; Datasets; Decision trees; Discriminant analysis; Dynamic height; Earth, ocean, space; Empirical analysis; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Geophysics. Techniques, methods, instrumentation and models; Geopotential; Geopotential height; Hurricanes; Mean winds; Meteorology; Meteors; Monsoons; Observational studies; Parameters; Rain; Steering; Storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms; Studies; Tropical cyclone tracks; Tropical cyclones; Weather forecasting; Wind; Wind fields; Winds
• ISSN: 1558-8424; 1558-8432
• DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-12-045.1

This paper is the first of a two-part series of papers that employs the data-mining approach to analyze tropical cyclone (TC) movement in the western North Pacific Ocean. Part I unravels conditions under which TCs tend to recurve, and Part II uncovers conditions leading to TCs making landfall. Here in Part I, a detailed study is carried out into TC recurvature over the South China Sea and western North Pacific. The investigation focuses on the unraveling of rules governing TC recurvature hidden in TC data. The historical TC track database comprises recurving TCs and straight movers. Potential parameters affecting TC recurvature are categorized into three groups: large-scale circulation, circulations surrounding TCs, and variables characterizing TCs. The tree construction algorithm, C4.5, is applied to classify recurving and straight-moving TCs. Parameters measuring large-scale circulation patterns and characterizing TCs play significant roles in building the classification tree. Altogether, 18 rules are discovered from the processed database. Most of the 18 rules can be explained by existing theories and are supported by various empirical findings on TC recurvatures. Rules governing TC recurvature discovered by the present study contain quantitative descriptions of factors such as composite wind fields, geopotential heights, and deep-layer mean winds that are essential to the understanding, interpretation, and prediction of TC recurvatures.