Crossing the Line: Local Ethnic Geography and Voting in Ghana

• Published in: The American political science review 2013-05, Vol.107 (2), p.344-361
• Main Authors: ICHINO, NAHOMI, NATHAN, NOAH L.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: African studies; Censuses; Democracy; Developing countries; Election results; Elections; Ethnic Diversity; Ethnic Groups; Ethnicity; Geographic regions; Geography; Ghana; Hypotheses; LDCs; Local government; Minority & ethnic groups; Minority Groups; Political elections; Political parties; Political science; Politicians; Polls & surveys; Population; Presidential elections; Public Opinion; Public opinion surveys; Racial Composition; Racial Identification; Rural Areas; Social Class; Urban areas; Voter behavior; Voters; Voting; Voting behavior
• ISSN: 0003-0554; 1537-5943
• DOI: 10.1017/S0003055412000664

Theories of instrumental ethnic voting in new democracies propose that voters support co-ethnic politicians because they expect politicians to favor their co-ethnics once in office. But many goods that politicians deliver to voters are locally nonexcludable in rural areas, so the local presence of an ethnic group associated with a politician should affect a rural voter's assessment of how likely she is to benefit from that politician's election. Using geocoded polling-station–level election results alongside survey data from Ghana, we show that otherwise similar voters are less likely to vote for the party of their own ethnic group, and more likely to support a party associated with another group, when the local ethnic geography favors the other group. This result helps account for the imperfect correlation between ethnicity and vote choice in African democracies. More generally, this demonstrates how local community and geographic contexts can modify the information conveyed by ethnicity and influence voter behavior.