Vulnerability of 208 endemic or endangered species in China to the effects of climate change

• Published in: Regional environmental change 2013-08, Vol.13 (4), p.843-852
• Main Authors: Li, Xinhai, Tian, Huidong, Wang, Yuan, Li, Renqiang, Song, Zengming, Zhang, Fengchun, Xu, Ming, Li, Dianmo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Amphibians; Analysis; Biodiversity; Climate adaptation; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate effects; Climate models; Earth and Environmental Science; Endangered & extinct species; Endangered species; Endemic species; Environment; Environmental impact; Geography; Global temperature changes; Landscape ecology; Nature Conservation; Oceanography; Original Article; Regional/Spatial Science; Reptiles; Taxa; Threatened species
• ISSN: 1436-3798; 1436-378X
• DOI: 10.1007/s10113-012-0344-z

We assessed the vulnerability of 208 endemic or endangered species in China to the effects of climate change, as a part of the project “Research on China’s National Biodiversity and Climate Change Strategy and Action Plans”. Based on the China Species Information System, we selected comprehensive species as analysis targets, covering taxa including mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and plants. We applied nine species distribution models in BIOMOD (a package of R software) to estimate the current (1991–2010) ranges and predicted future (2081–2100) ranges of these species, using six climate variables based on Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) and A1B emission scenario. The model results showed that different taxa might show diverse potential range shifts over time. The range sizes of half of the species (104 species) would decrease, and those of another half would increase. We predicted that the future remaining ranges (intersection of current and future ranges/current ranges) of 135 species would be less than 50 % of their current range sizes. Species that are both endemic and critically endangered would lose more of their range than others. In summary, the most vulnerable species are currently found on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, in the Hengduan Mountain Range, and southern China. Future action plans dealing with climate change in China should be prepared with consideration for vulnerable species and their habitats.