Comparison of short-term rainfall forecasts for model-based flow prediction in urban drainage systems

• Published in: Water science and technology 2013-01, Vol.68 (2), p.472-478
• Main Authors: THORNDAHL, Søren, POULSEN, Troels Sander, BØVITH, Thomas, BORUP, Morten, AHM, Malte, NIELSEN, Jesper Ellerbæk, GRUM, Morten, RASMUSSEN, Michael R, GILL, Rasphall, MIKKELSEN, Peter Steen
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Cities; Drainage control; Drainage systems; Drainage, Sanitary; Exact sciences and technology; Forecasting; Inlet flow; Inlets (waterways); Lead time; Mathematical models; Models, Theoretical; Natural water pollution; Pollution; Prediction models; Predictions; Radar; Rain; Rainfall; Rainwaters, run off water and others; Real time; Runoff; Stormwater; Time Factors; Urban drainage; Urban runoff; Waste Disposal, Fluid; Wastewater; Wastewater treatment; Wastewater treatment plants; Water Movements; Water treatment; Water treatment and pollution; Water treatment plants; Weather forecasting
• ISSN: 0273-1223; 1996-9732
• DOI: 10.2166/wst.2013.274

Forecast-based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real-time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecast - a radar rainfall extrapolation-based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real-time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 h. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short lead times and the weather model for larger lead times.