State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and skill score evaluation of stochastic volume forecasts in urban drainage systems

Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water science and technology 2013-01, Vol.68 (3), p.584-590
Main Authors: LÖWE, Roland, STEEN MIKKELSEN, Peter, RASMUSSEN, Michael R, MADSEN, Henrik
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Applied sciences
Atmospheric precipitations
C band
Catchment area
Catchments
Data
Denmark
Drainage measurement
Drainage systems
Drainage, Sanitary
Environmental Monitoring - methods
Evaluation
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasting
Hydrologic data
Mathematical models
Models, Theoretical
Outflow
Pollution
Radar
Radar data
Rain
Rain gauges
Rainfall
Rainfall intensity
Runoff
Runoff forecasting
State space models
Urban drainage
Water treatment and pollution
Citations: Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input for forecasting outflow from two catchments in the Copenhagen area. Stochastic grey-box models are applied to create the runoff forecasts, providing us with not only a point forecast but also a quantification of the forecast uncertainty. Evaluating the results, we can show that using the adjusted radar data improves runoff forecasts compared with using the original radar data and that rain gauge measurements as forecast input are also outperformed. Combining the data merging approach with short-term rainfall forecasting algorithms may result in further improved runoff forecasts that can be used in real time control.
ISSN:0273-1223
1996-9732
DOI:10.2166/wst.2013.284