Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany

• Published in: Energy policy 2013-08, Vol.59, p.350-360
• Main Authors: Pregger, Thomas, Nitsch, Joachim, Naegler, Tobias
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Alternative energy; Applied sciences; Benefits; Cost; cost effectiveness; Economic analysis; Economic data; Economic effect; Economic impact; Economic strategies; Energy; energy costs; Energy economics; Energy efficiency; Energy policy; Energy scenario; Energy sector; Exact sciences and technology; Federal government; Fuel; Fuels; General, economic and professional studies; Germany; imports; Investments; issues and policy; Markets; Natural energy; politics; Power supply; Renewable energy; Renewable energy sources; Saving; Studies; systems analysis; Technology; Technology assessment; Western Europe
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.049

The transformation of the energy supply in Germany (the “Energiewende”) as described in the German Federal government’s ‘Energy Concept’ (Energiekonzept, 2010) is based on a political consensus about long-term targets for energy efficiency and renewable energies. The aim of this article is to present a consistent scenario for this transformation process reflecting the long-term implementation of renewable energies and the possible future structure of the German energy system as a whole. Structural and economic effects of this development are derived and discussed. It summarizes results of scenario analyses done by the department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center as part of a three-year research project for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. The underlying study provides a detailed data base reflecting a long-term roadmap for the energy system transformation in Germany. The scenarios show that the policy targets are consistent and can be achieved, if appropriate policy measures are to be implemented. The economic analysis shows the amount of investments and the strong market dynamics required for new generation technologies but also the huge economic benefits that can result from this development path in terms of fuel cost savings and lower fuel imports. •Long-term scenario for the German energy system according to the political targets.•Comparison of three variants with differing developments of the fleets of vehicles.•Analysis of economic effects: investments, generation and differential costs.•Importance of strategies in the sectors electricity, heat, and transportation.•Recommended measures for the successful implementation of the CO2 reductions.