Shirts Today, Skins Tomorrow: Dual Contests and the Effects of Fragmentation in Self-Determination Disputes

While theoretical models of conflict often treat actors as unitary, most self-determination groups are fragmented into a number of competing internal factions. This article presents a framework for understanding the "dual contests" that self-determination groups engage in—the first with th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Conflict Resolution 2012-02, Vol.56 (1), p.67-93
Main Authors: Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher, Bakke, Kristin M., Seymour, Lee J. M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Civil wars
Competition
Conflict
Conflict resolution
Datasets
Democracy
Determinants
Disputes
Ethnic conflict
Ethnic groups
Ethnicity
Group behaviour
Independence movements
Minority & ethnic violence
Political behavior
Political Violence
Self Determination
Separatism
Sikhism
Social cohesion
Studies
Violence
Violence against civilians
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Summary:While theoretical models of conflict often treat actors as unitary, most self-determination groups are fragmented into a number of competing internal factions. This article presents a framework for understanding the "dual contests" that self-determination groups engage in—the first with their host state and the second between co-ethnic factions within groups. Using a new data set of the number of factions within a sample of self-determination groups from 1960 to 2008, the authors find that competition between co-ethnic factions is a key determinant of their conflict behavior. More competing factions are associated with higher instances of violence against the state as well as more factional fighting and attacks on co-ethnic civilians. More factions using violence increases the chances that other factions will do so, and the entry of a new faction prompts violence from existing factions in a within-group contest for political relevance. These findings have implications for both theory and policy.
ISSN:0022-0027
1552-8766
DOI:10.1177/0022002711429697