The past and future of knowledge-based growth

This paper consolidates two previously disconnected literatures. It integrates R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The theory suggests a refined view on the human factor in productivity growth. It helps to explain the histori...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of economic growth (Boston, Mass.) Mass.), 2013-12, Vol.18 (4), p.411-437
Main Authors: Strulik, Holger, Prettner, Klaus, Prskawetz, Alexia
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asian Americans
Child growth
Child rearing
Demographic change
Demographics
Demography
Developed countries
Economic development
Economic Growth
Economic growth models
Economic growth theories
Economic history
Economic statistics
Economic theory
Economics
Economics and Finance
Education
Fertility
Growth models
Hispanic people
Human capital
Innovations
International Economics
Long run economic growth
Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics
Per capita
Population growth
Population growth rate
Productivity
Productivity growth
R&D
Research & development
Studies
Technological change
Workers
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Summary:This paper consolidates two previously disconnected literatures. It integrates R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The theory suggests a refined view on the human factor in productivity growth. It helps to explain the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The model predicts that the erstwhile positive correlation between population growth and innovative activity turns negative during economic development. This "population-productivity reversal" explains why innovative modern economies are usually characterized by low or negative population growth. Because innovations in modern economies are based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth—when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries—are better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories.
ISSN:1381-4338
1573-7020
DOI:10.1007/s10887-013-9098-9