Evaluating Alternative Migration Estimation Techniques for Population Estimates and Projections

Accurate population estimates are critical to effective planning and policy. This study evaluates county population estimates using three different approaches to estimate domestic migration—typically the most volatile component of population change. Using the 2010 Census as a benchmark, it compares...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of planning education and research 2013-09, Vol.33 (3), p.325-335
Main Authors: Renski, Henry, Strate, Susan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Benchmarks
Census
Counties
Errors
Migration
Population
Population policy
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Accurate population estimates are critical to effective planning and policy. This study evaluates county population estimates using three different approaches to estimate domestic migration—typically the most volatile component of population change. Using the 2010 Census as a benchmark, it compares the standard net-migration approach to two gross migration approaches—a biregional approach and a multiregional approach that models migration between county pairs. The biregional model produces the lowest average error and is a good choice when producing estimates for a large number of diverse areas. The multiregional model works well for many counties, but is prone to extreme errors.
ISSN:0739-456X
1552-6577
DOI:10.1177/0739456X13484362