Alternative agricultural policy scenarios, sector modelling and indicators: A sustainability assessment

In this article, we assess ecological, economic and social sustainability impacts of four alternative agricultural policy scenarios relevant to the European perspective. The analysed scenarios are: Prolonged Agenda 2000, On-going CAP reform, Integrated rural and environmental policy, and Liberalized...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of sustainable agriculture 2005-01, Vol.26 (4), p.63-93
Main Authors: Lehtonen, H, Aakkula, J, Rikkonen, P
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agri-environmental indicators
agricultural law
agricultural policy
agriculture
crop production
crop yield
econometric models
economic analysis
environmental impact
European Union
investments
land use
livestock production
policy analysis
policy dialogue
policy scenarios
production
sectoral development
simulation models
sustainable agriculture
technical change
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Summary:In this article, we assess ecological, economic and social sustainability impacts of four alternative agricultural policy scenarios relevant to the European perspective. The analysed scenarios are: Prolonged Agenda 2000, On-going CAP reform, Integrated rural and environmental policy, and Liberalized Agricultural Trade. An economic agricultural sector model of Finnish agriculture is used in the evaluation of policy impacts up to 2020. Selected indicators representing the three dimensions of sustainability are calculated on the basis of the production variables of the model in each scenario. It is assumed that economic rationality, represented by the sector model, is a driving force directing agricultural production and land use, which, in turn, have a number of ecological, economic and social consequences. Our results show that a partial de-coupling of agricultural support from production and moderate reductions of commodity prices are likely to yield environmental benefits. In addition, there is a clear trade-off between environmental benefits and production volume and intensity. However, full de-coupling and radical price reductions are not likely to bring any additional environmental benefits but will result in a significant down-scaling and regional concentration of remaining agricultural activities. Hence the presented analysis is an interesting platform for discussion for stakeholders when implementing agricultural policy reforms.
ISSN:1044-0046
1540-7578
DOI:10.1300/J064v26n04_06