The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries / L'influence des politiques familiales sur les tendances de la fécondité des pays développés

• Published in: European journal of population 2013-11, Vol.29 (4), p.387-416
• Main Authors: Luci-Greulich, Angela, Thevenon, Olivier
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Age; Child care; Childbirth; Childbirth & labor; Children; Demography; Developed countries; Economic models; Economic statistics; Economic theory; Expenditures; Families & family life; Female fertility; Fertility; Fertility rates; Human Geography; Impact analysis; Industrialized nations; Labor market; Labor markets; Methodology of the Social Sciences; Parental leave; Parents; Parents & parenting; Population; Population Economics; Public Finance; Social conditions & trends; Social policy; Social research; Social Sciences; Sociology; Studies; Time series; Trends; Welfare state
• ISSN: 0168-6577; 1572-9885
• DOI: 10.1007/s10680-013-9295-4

We examine how strongly fertility trends respond to family policies in OECD countries. In the light of the recent fertility rebound observed in several OECD countries, we empirically test the impact of different family policy instruments on fertility, using macro panel data from 18 OECD countries that spans the years 1982–2007. Our results confirm that each instrument of the family policy package (paid leave, childcare services and financial transfers) has a positive influence on average, suggesting that the combination of these forms of support for working parents during their children's early years is likely to facilitate parents' choice to have children. Policy levers do not all have the same weight, however: incash benefits covering childhood after the year of childbirth and the provision of childcare services for children under age three have a larger potential influence on fertility than leave entitlements and benefits granted around childbirth. Moreover, we find that the influence of each policy measure varies across different family policy contexts. Our findings are robust after controlling for birth postponement, endogeneity, time-lagged fertility reactions and for different aspects of national contexts, such as female labour market participation, unemployment, labour market protection and the proportion of children born out of marriage. Nous examinons dans quelle mesure les tendances de la fécondité réagissent aux politiques familiales dans les pays de l'OCDE. En relation avec la réaugmentation des taux de fécondité observés dans plusieurs pays de l'OCDE, nous testons l'influence de différentes mesures de politiques familiales sur la fécondité, sur un panel de 18 pays pour la période allant de 1982 à 2007. Nos résultats confirment que chaque mesure de cet ensemble (congé rémunéré, services d'accueil de la petite enfance et transferts financiers) ont en moyenne une influence positive sur la fécondité, suggérant que la combinaison de ces formes d'aides aux parents qui travaillent avec de jeunes enfants est susceptible de faciliter le choix d'avoir des enfants. Les différents instruments politiques n'ont toutefois pas le même poids : les prestations financières versées au-delà de la naissance et l'offre de service d'accueil pour les enfants de moins de trois ans ont une influence potentielle plus grande que les droits au congé et les aides financières associées à une naissance. De plus, l'effet de chaque mesure varie selon le contexte global constit