External Validation of a Nomogram That Predicts the Pathological Diagnosis of Thyroid Nodules in a Chinese Population. e65162

• Published in: PloS one 2013-06, Vol.8 (6)
• Main Authors: Wu, Ridong, Zhu, Liling, Li, Wen, Tang, Qing, Pan, Fushun, Wu, Weibin, Liu, Jie, Yao, Chen, Wang, Shenming
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Discrimination
• ISSN: 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0065162

Introduction Nomograms are statistical predictive models that can provide the probability of a clinical event. Nomograms have better performance for the estimation of individual risks because of their increased accuracy and objectivity relative to physicians' personal experiences. Recently, a nomogram for predicting the likelihood that a thyroid nodule is malignant was introduced by Nixon. The aim of this study was to determine whether Nixon's nomogram can be validated in a Chinese population. Materials and Methods All consecutive patients with thyroid nodules who underwent surgery between January and June 2012 in our hospital were enrolled to validate Nixon's nomogram. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors for thyroid carcinoma. Discrimination and calibration were employed to evaluate the performance of Nixon's model in our population. Results A total of 348 consecutive patients with 409 thyroid nodules were enrolled. Thyroid ultrasonographic characteristics, including shape, echo texture, calcification, margins, vascularity and number (solitary vs. multiple nodules), were associated with malignance in the multivariate analysis. The discrimination of all nodules group, the group with a low risk of malignancy (predictive proportion