Exploiting the Chaos: Terrorist Target Choice Following Natural Disasters

This article explores the differences between transnational and domestic terrorism, further differentiating by private versus government targets, to estimate the effect of exogenous catastrophic shocks on a country's level of domestic and transnational terrorism. The empirical analysis uses det...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Southern economic journal 2013-04, Vol.79 (4), p.793-811
Main Authors: Berrebi, Claude, Ostwald, Jordan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
C23
Chaos theory
D74
Disaster recovery
Disaster relief
Disasters
Domestic terrorism
Earthquakes
Economic models
Economic statistics
Economic theory
Effects
Evidence
Foreign aid
Global economy
Government
Gross domestic product
H56
International
Manycountries
Motivation
Natural disasters
Pakistan
Political economy
Population growth
Population size
Q54
Standard error
Statistical significance
Studies
Symposium
Terrorism
Transnationalism
Tsunamis
Urban populations
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Description
Summary:This article explores the differences between transnational and domestic terrorism, further differentiating by private versus government targets, to estimate the effect of exogenous catastrophic shocks on a country's level of domestic and transnational terrorism. The empirical analysis uses detailed data on terrorism, natural disasters, and other relevant controls for 176 countries from 1970-2007 to illuminate several key disparities in a postdisaster target choice of terrorists. The results indicate that natural disasters incite both transnational and domestic terrorism; however, evidence is found for dissimilar motivations between the two. While both types of terrorism increase after disasters, transnational attacks against the government increase immediately following the disaster, suggesting an impetus to exploit weakened "hard" targets during the chaos. Conversely, domestic terrorism against the government takes longer to manifest, suggesting a period of time for which the public recovers and assesses the government's response.
ISSN:0038-4038
2325-8012
DOI:10.4284/0038-4038-2012.268