Loading…

Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382

Performance of national centers for environmental prediction based global forecast system (GFS) T574/L64 and GFS T382/L64 over Indian region has been evaluated for the summer monsoon season of 2011. The real-time model outputs are generated daily at India Meteorological Department, New Delhi for the...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate dynamics 2014-03, Vol.42 (5-6), p.1527-1551
Main Authors: Durai, V. R., Roy Bhowmik, S. K.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c483t-7e8f048d09db371cdf07af6715c67ca750ea7b633d5ea3e5f13b9754a744be8a3
cites cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c483t-7e8f048d09db371cdf07af6715c67ca750ea7b633d5ea3e5f13b9754a744be8a3
container_end_page 1551
container_issue 5-6
container_start_page 1527
container_title Climate dynamics
container_volume 42
creator Durai, V. R.
Roy Bhowmik, S. K.
description Performance of national centers for environmental prediction based global forecast system (GFS) T574/L64 and GFS T382/L64 over Indian region has been evaluated for the summer monsoon season of 2011. The real-time model outputs are generated daily at India Meteorological Department, New Delhi for the forecasts up to 7 days. Verification of rainfall forecasts has been carried out against observed rainfall analysis. Performance of the model is also examined in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water content. Case study of a monsoon depression is also illustrated. Results obtained show that, in general, both the GFS T382 and T574 forecasts are skillful to capture climatologically heavy rainfall regions. However, the accuracy in prediction of location and magnitude of rainfall fluctuates considerably. The verification results, at the spatial scale of 50 km resolution, in a regional spatial scale and country as a whole, in terms of continuous skill score, time series and categorical statistics, have demonstrated superiority of GFS T574 against T382 over Indian region. Both the model shows bias of lower tropospheric drying and upper tropospheric moistening. A bias of anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower tropospheric level lay over the central India, where rainfall as well as precipitable water content shows negative bias. Considerable differences between GFS T574 and T382 are noticed in the structure of model bias in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water contents. The magnitude of error for these parameters increases with forecast lead time in both GFS T574 and T382. The results documented are expected to be useful to the forecasters, monsoon researchers and modeling community.
doi_str_mv 10.1007/s00382-013-1895-5
format article
fullrecord <record><control><sourceid>gale_proqu</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1505335912</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><galeid>A380747259</galeid><sourcerecordid>A380747259</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c483t-7e8f048d09db371cdf07af6715c67ca750ea7b633d5ea3e5f13b9754a744be8a3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNp1ktFqFDEUhgdRcK0-gHcBUdqLqckkmcxclmLrQkGx63XIZk52UmYmNSeD9gl87Wa6VbqC5CJw8v2Hk__8RfGW0VNGqfqIlPKmKinjJWtaWcpnxYoJnitNK54XK9pyWiqp5MviFeINpUzUqloVv79G6LxNPkwkOLKeOm8mgvM4QiRjmDDkB58rfYiJpEDGjM8jiWbaAUl-BILWDEB--tST3u96EgHDMD903A1hawbiQgRrMBG8wwQjOb68uD4hG6kEMVNHNnny18ULZwaEN4_3UfH94tPm_HN59eVyfX52VVrR8FQqaBwVTUfbbssVs52jyrhaMWlrZY2SFIza1px3EgwH6RjftkoKo4TYQmP4UXG873sbw48ZMOnRo4VhMBOEGTWTVHIuW1Zl9N0_6E2Y45SnWyhaS8aEytTpntplF7SfXEjR2Hw6GL0NEzif62e8oUqoSrZZcHIgyEyCX2lnZkS9vv52yH54wvZghtT_MRcPQbYHbQyIEZy-jX408U4zqpeA6H1AdA6IXgKiZda8f_yfWVbo8kqtx7_Cqqmp4nLxodpzmJ_y1uMTH_7b_B6C28fe</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1500651147</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382</title><source>Springer Nature</source><creator>Durai, V. R. ; Roy Bhowmik, S. K.</creator><creatorcontrib>Durai, V. R. ; Roy Bhowmik, S. K.</creatorcontrib><description>Performance of national centers for environmental prediction based global forecast system (GFS) T574/L64 and GFS T382/L64 over Indian region has been evaluated for the summer monsoon season of 2011. The real-time model outputs are generated daily at India Meteorological Department, New Delhi for the forecasts up to 7 days. Verification of rainfall forecasts has been carried out against observed rainfall analysis. Performance of the model is also examined in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water content. Case study of a monsoon depression is also illustrated. Results obtained show that, in general, both the GFS T382 and T574 forecasts are skillful to capture climatologically heavy rainfall regions. However, the accuracy in prediction of location and magnitude of rainfall fluctuates considerably. The verification results, at the spatial scale of 50 km resolution, in a regional spatial scale and country as a whole, in terms of continuous skill score, time series and categorical statistics, have demonstrated superiority of GFS T574 against T382 over Indian region. Both the model shows bias of lower tropospheric drying and upper tropospheric moistening. A bias of anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower tropospheric level lay over the central India, where rainfall as well as precipitable water content shows negative bias. Considerable differences between GFS T574 and T382 are noticed in the structure of model bias in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water contents. The magnitude of error for these parameters increases with forecast lead time in both GFS T574 and T382. The results documented are expected to be useful to the forecasters, monsoon researchers and modeling community.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0930-7575</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1432-0894</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1895-5</identifier><identifier>CODEN: CLDYEM</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>Analysis ; Case studies ; Climate science ; Climatology ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Earth, ocean, space ; Evaluation ; Exact sciences and technology ; External geophysics ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; Measurement ; Meteorology ; Methods ; Monsoons ; Oceanography ; Precipitation ; Radiation ; Rainfall ; Specific humidity ; Storms ; Studies ; Summer ; Troposphere ; Water content ; Weather analysis and prediction ; Weather forecasting ; Wind</subject><ispartof>Climate dynamics, 2014-03, Vol.42 (5-6), p.1527-1551</ispartof><rights>Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013</rights><rights>2015 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 2014 Springer</rights><rights>Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c483t-7e8f048d09db371cdf07af6715c67ca750ea7b633d5ea3e5f13b9754a744be8a3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c483t-7e8f048d09db371cdf07af6715c67ca750ea7b633d5ea3e5f13b9754a744be8a3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&amp;idt=28607352$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Durai, V. R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roy Bhowmik, S. K.</creatorcontrib><title>Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382</title><title>Climate dynamics</title><addtitle>Clim Dyn</addtitle><description>Performance of national centers for environmental prediction based global forecast system (GFS) T574/L64 and GFS T382/L64 over Indian region has been evaluated for the summer monsoon season of 2011. The real-time model outputs are generated daily at India Meteorological Department, New Delhi for the forecasts up to 7 days. Verification of rainfall forecasts has been carried out against observed rainfall analysis. Performance of the model is also examined in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water content. Case study of a monsoon depression is also illustrated. Results obtained show that, in general, both the GFS T382 and T574 forecasts are skillful to capture climatologically heavy rainfall regions. However, the accuracy in prediction of location and magnitude of rainfall fluctuates considerably. The verification results, at the spatial scale of 50 km resolution, in a regional spatial scale and country as a whole, in terms of continuous skill score, time series and categorical statistics, have demonstrated superiority of GFS T574 against T382 over Indian region. Both the model shows bias of lower tropospheric drying and upper tropospheric moistening. A bias of anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower tropospheric level lay over the central India, where rainfall as well as precipitable water content shows negative bias. Considerable differences between GFS T574 and T382 are noticed in the structure of model bias in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water contents. The magnitude of error for these parameters increases with forecast lead time in both GFS T574 and T382. The results documented are expected to be useful to the forecasters, monsoon researchers and modeling community.</description><subject>Analysis</subject><subject>Case studies</subject><subject>Climate science</subject><subject>Climatology</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Evaluation</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>External geophysics</subject><subject>Geophysics/Geodesy</subject><subject>Measurement</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>Methods</subject><subject>Monsoons</subject><subject>Oceanography</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Radiation</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Specific humidity</subject><subject>Storms</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Summer</subject><subject>Troposphere</subject><subject>Water content</subject><subject>Weather analysis and prediction</subject><subject>Weather forecasting</subject><subject>Wind</subject><issn>0930-7575</issn><issn>1432-0894</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2014</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp1ktFqFDEUhgdRcK0-gHcBUdqLqckkmcxclmLrQkGx63XIZk52UmYmNSeD9gl87Wa6VbqC5CJw8v2Hk__8RfGW0VNGqfqIlPKmKinjJWtaWcpnxYoJnitNK54XK9pyWiqp5MviFeINpUzUqloVv79G6LxNPkwkOLKeOm8mgvM4QiRjmDDkB58rfYiJpEDGjM8jiWbaAUl-BILWDEB--tST3u96EgHDMD903A1hawbiQgRrMBG8wwQjOb68uD4hG6kEMVNHNnny18ULZwaEN4_3UfH94tPm_HN59eVyfX52VVrR8FQqaBwVTUfbbssVs52jyrhaMWlrZY2SFIza1px3EgwH6RjftkoKo4TYQmP4UXG873sbw48ZMOnRo4VhMBOEGTWTVHIuW1Zl9N0_6E2Y45SnWyhaS8aEytTpntplF7SfXEjR2Hw6GL0NEzif62e8oUqoSrZZcHIgyEyCX2lnZkS9vv52yH54wvZghtT_MRcPQbYHbQyIEZy-jX408U4zqpeA6H1AdA6IXgKiZda8f_yfWVbo8kqtx7_Cqqmp4nLxodpzmJ_y1uMTH_7b_B6C28fe</recordid><startdate>20140301</startdate><enddate>20140301</enddate><creator>Durai, V. R.</creator><creator>Roy Bhowmik, S. K.</creator><general>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</general><general>Springer</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>ISR</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88F</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>M1Q</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>7QH</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20140301</creationdate><title>Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382</title><author>Durai, V. R. ; Roy Bhowmik, S. K.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c483t-7e8f048d09db371cdf07af6715c67ca750ea7b633d5ea3e5f13b9754a744be8a3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2014</creationdate><topic>Analysis</topic><topic>Case studies</topic><topic>Climate science</topic><topic>Climatology</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Earth, ocean, space</topic><topic>Evaluation</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>External geophysics</topic><topic>Geophysics/Geodesy</topic><topic>Measurement</topic><topic>Meteorology</topic><topic>Methods</topic><topic>Monsoons</topic><topic>Oceanography</topic><topic>Precipitation</topic><topic>Radiation</topic><topic>Rainfall</topic><topic>Specific humidity</topic><topic>Storms</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Summer</topic><topic>Troposphere</topic><topic>Water content</topic><topic>Weather analysis and prediction</topic><topic>Weather forecasting</topic><topic>Wind</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Durai, V. R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roy Bhowmik, S. K.</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Science (Gale in Context)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Meteorological &amp; Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Military Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Agricultural &amp; Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric &amp; Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Aquatic Science &amp; Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy &amp; Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological &amp; Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science &amp; Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Military Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Science Journals</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric &amp; Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>Aqualine</collection><jtitle>Climate dynamics</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Durai, V. R.</au><au>Roy Bhowmik, S. K.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382</atitle><jtitle>Climate dynamics</jtitle><stitle>Clim Dyn</stitle><date>2014-03-01</date><risdate>2014</risdate><volume>42</volume><issue>5-6</issue><spage>1527</spage><epage>1551</epage><pages>1527-1551</pages><issn>0930-7575</issn><eissn>1432-0894</eissn><coden>CLDYEM</coden><abstract>Performance of national centers for environmental prediction based global forecast system (GFS) T574/L64 and GFS T382/L64 over Indian region has been evaluated for the summer monsoon season of 2011. The real-time model outputs are generated daily at India Meteorological Department, New Delhi for the forecasts up to 7 days. Verification of rainfall forecasts has been carried out against observed rainfall analysis. Performance of the model is also examined in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water content. Case study of a monsoon depression is also illustrated. Results obtained show that, in general, both the GFS T382 and T574 forecasts are skillful to capture climatologically heavy rainfall regions. However, the accuracy in prediction of location and magnitude of rainfall fluctuates considerably. The verification results, at the spatial scale of 50 km resolution, in a regional spatial scale and country as a whole, in terms of continuous skill score, time series and categorical statistics, have demonstrated superiority of GFS T574 against T382 over Indian region. Both the model shows bias of lower tropospheric drying and upper tropospheric moistening. A bias of anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower tropospheric level lay over the central India, where rainfall as well as precipitable water content shows negative bias. Considerable differences between GFS T574 and T382 are noticed in the structure of model bias in terms of lower tropospheric wind circulation, vertical structure of specific humidity and precipitable water contents. The magnitude of error for these parameters increases with forecast lead time in both GFS T574 and T382. The results documented are expected to be useful to the forecasters, monsoon researchers and modeling community.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><doi>10.1007/s00382-013-1895-5</doi><tpages>25</tpages></addata></record>
fulltext fulltext
identifier ISSN: 0930-7575
ispartof Climate dynamics, 2014-03, Vol.42 (5-6), p.1527-1551
issn 0930-7575
1432-0894
language eng
recordid cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1505335912
source Springer Nature
subjects Analysis
Case studies
Climate science
Climatology
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Evaluation
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Geophysics/Geodesy
Measurement
Meteorology
Methods
Monsoons
Oceanography
Precipitation
Radiation
Rainfall
Specific humidity
Storms
Studies
Summer
Troposphere
Water content
Weather analysis and prediction
Weather forecasting
Wind
title Prediction of Indian summer monsoon in short to medium range time scale with high resolution global forecast system (GFS) T574 and T382
url http://sfxeu10.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/loughborough?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2024-12-25T04%3A34%3A44IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-gale_proqu&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Prediction%20of%20Indian%20summer%20monsoon%20in%20short%20to%20medium%20range%20time%20scale%20with%20high%20resolution%20global%20forecast%20system%20(GFS)%20T574%20and%20T382&rft.jtitle=Climate%20dynamics&rft.au=Durai,%20V.%20R.&rft.date=2014-03-01&rft.volume=42&rft.issue=5-6&rft.spage=1527&rft.epage=1551&rft.pages=1527-1551&rft.issn=0930-7575&rft.eissn=1432-0894&rft.coden=CLDYEM&rft_id=info:doi/10.1007/s00382-013-1895-5&rft_dat=%3Cgale_proqu%3EA380747259%3C/gale_proqu%3E%3Cgrp_id%3Ecdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c483t-7e8f048d09db371cdf07af6715c67ca750ea7b633d5ea3e5f13b9754a744be8a3%3C/grp_id%3E%3Coa%3E%3C/oa%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=1500651147&rft_id=info:pmid/&rft_galeid=A380747259&rfr_iscdi=true