Using Changes in Agricultural Utility to Quantify Future Climate-Induced Risk to Conservation

• Published in: Conservation biology 2014-04, Vol.28 (2), p.427-437
• Main Authors: ESTES, LYNDON D., PAROZ, LYDIE-LINE, BRADLEY, BETHANY A., GREEN, JONATHAN M.H., HOLE, DAVID G., HOLNESS, STEPHEN, ZIV, GUY, OPPENHEIMER, MICHAEL G., WILCOVE, DAVID S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: agricultural utility; Agriculture; Agronomy; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Applied ecology; Biodiversity; Biodiversity conservation; Biological and medical sciences; cambio climático; Climate Change; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; conservation area; Conservation biology; Conservation of Natural Resources; Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife; Contributed Papers; Corn; costo de oportunidad; crop model; Crops; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Farming; Farmlands; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agroecology; General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping; General agronomy. Plant production; General aspects; Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development; Habitat conservation; Meteorology; modelo de cultivo; Models, Theoretical; opportunity cost; Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking; Protected areas; South Africa; Sudáfrica; Triticum - growth & development; Triticum aestivum; utilidad agricultural; Wheat; Zea mays; Zea mays - growth & development; Área de conservación
• ISSN: 0888-8892; 1523-1739
• DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12205

Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. Mucha de la investigación de los impactos del cambio climático relacionados con la biodiversidad se ha enfocado en los efectos directos sobre las especies y los ecosistemas. Se le ha prestado muy poca atención a las consecuencias ecológicas potenciales de los esfuerzos humanos para tratar los efectos del cambio climático, lo cual puede igualar o exceder los efectos directos del cambio climático sobre la biodiversidad. Es probable que una de las respuestas humanas más significativas sea mediada por los cambios en la utilidad agrícola del suelo. Mientras los granjeros adaptan sus prácticas a los climas cambiantes, pueden incrementar la presión en algunas áreas que son importantes de conservar (tierras de conservación) y disminuirla en o