Application of the counterfactual method to assess of the local economic impact of a nuclear power station

• Published in: Energy policy 2013-11, Vol.62, p.1481-1492
• Main Authors: Gallo-Rivera, María Teresa, Mancha-Navarro, Tomás, Garrido-Yserte, Rubén
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Counterfactual method; Economic activity; economic analysis; Economic data; Economic impact; Electric energy; Energy; Energy economics; Energy policy; Exact sciences and technology; General, economic and professional studies; Government; Income; issues and policy; Methodology. Modelling; Municipal government; Nuclear energy; nuclear power; Nuclear power plants; Nuclear power station; per-capita income; Policy making; Population; power plants; Public sector; Spain; Studies; Unemployment; Western Europe
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.034

Several studies have examined the local economic effects of nuclear power stations. However, their heterogeneity within countries and between countries indicate that one must be very cautious in drawing general conclusions about the positive and negative local economic effects of nuclear power stations over time. Using information about a specific nuclear facility in Spain and its zone of influence, we investigate the local economic impact of a nuclear facility by applying an infrequently used methodology called the “counterfactual” method. The purpose of this application of the counterfactual method is to establish what would have happened if the nuclear power plant had not been built where it was. This method permits observation of the impact of the nuclear power plant on the evolution of a set of variables whose influence is extremely important for the local area, such as the population, unemployment level, per capita income, and municipal governments’ revenues. Generalization of this method could offer the possibility of providing comparative results. However, the method must be complemented with other short-term approaches to provide a more specific analysis of the economic effects on the local actors involved and to offer incentives to policymakers to design and develop policies aimed at boosting economic activity in the area. •The Trillo Nuclear Power Plant plays a key role in stimulating its local environment.•The counterfactual method is estimated based on the performance of control group.•At least at the beginning of its operation the population dynamism was clear.•There is not strong evidence about the rise of employment and local public revenues.•The expenditure flow assesses the local turnover, jobs and municipal revenues.