How Places Influence Crime: The Impact of Surrounding Areas on Neighbourhood Burglary Rates in a British City

Burglary prevalence within neighbourhoods is well understood but the risk from bordering areas is under-theorised and under-researched. If it were possible to fix a neighbourhood's location but substitute its surrounding areas, one might expect to see some influence on its crime rate. However,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Urban studies (Edinburgh, Scotland) Scotland), 2014-04, Vol.51 (5), p.1057-1072
Main Authors: Hirschfield, Alex, Birkin, Mark, Brunsdon, Chris, Malleson, Nicolas, Newton, Andrew
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bgi / Prodig
Burglary
Cities
Crime
Crime patterns
Crime Prevention
Crime Rates
Criminals
Demographics
Ecology
England
Environmental Factors
Errors
Europe
Fear of crime
Knowledge
Land Use
Land use planning
Land utilization
Location
Modeling
Neighborhoods
Property crimes
Risk
Risk assessment
Spatial models
The British Isles
United Kingdom
Urban crime
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Summary:Burglary prevalence within neighbourhoods is well understood but the risk from bordering areas is under-theorised and under-researched. If it were possible to fix a neighbourhood's location but substitute its surrounding areas, one might expect to see some influence on its crime rate. However, by treating surrounding areas as independent observations, ecological studies assume that identical neighbourhoods with markedly different surroundings are equivalent. If not, knowing the impact of different peripheries would have significance for crime prevention, land use planning and other policy domains. This paper tests whether knowledge of the demographic make-up of surrounding areas can improve on the prediction of a neighbourhood's burglary rate based solely on its internal socio-demographics. Results identify significant between-area effects with certain types of periphery exerting stronger influences than others. The advantages and drawbacks of the spatial error and predictor lag model used in the analysis are discussed and areas for further research defined.
ISSN:0042-0980
1360-063X
DOI:10.1177/0042098013492232