Economic and Environmental Benefits of Higher-Octane Gasoline

• Published in: Environmental science & technology 2014-06, Vol.48 (12), p.6561-6568
• Main Authors: Speth, Raymond L, Chow, Eric W, Malina, Robert, Barrett, Steven R. H, Heywood, John B, Green, William H
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Additives; Air pollution caused by fuel industries; Applied sciences; Carbon Dioxide - analysis; Carbon Dioxide - economics; Consumption; Crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products; Economic data; Economic impact; Energy; Energy consumption; Energy economics; Energy efficiency; Energy. Thermal use of fuels; Environment; Environmental impact; Ethanol - analysis; Exact sciences and technology; Fossil fuels and derived products; Fuels; Gasoline; Gasoline - analysis; Gasoline - economics; General, economic and professional studies; Impact analysis; Metering. Control; Methodology. Modelling; Models, Theoretical; Motor Vehicles - economics; Octanes - analysis; Octanes - economics; Oil; Oil and Gas Fields; Petroleum products, gas and fuels. Motor fuels, lubricants and asphalts; United States; Vehicle Emissions - analysis
• ISSN: 0013-936X; 1520-5851
• DOI: 10.1021/es405557p

We quantify the economic and environmental benefits of designing U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) to attain higher fuel economy by utilizing higher octane (98 RON) gasoline. We use engine simulations, a review of experimental data, and drive cycle simulations to estimate the reduction in fuel consumption associated with using higher-RON gasoline in individual vehicles. Lifecycle CO2 emissions and economic impacts for the U.S. LDV fleet are estimated based on a linear-programming refinery model, a historically calibrated fleet model, and a well-to-wheels emissions analysis. We find that greater use of high-RON gasoline in appropriately tuned vehicles could reduce annual gasoline consumption in the U.S. by 3.0–4.4%. Accounting for the increase in refinery emissions from production of additional high-RON gasoline, net CO2 emissions are reduced by 19–35 Mt/y in 2040 (2.5–4.7% of total direct LDV CO2 emissions). For the strategies studied, the annual direct economic benefit is estimated to be $0.4–6.4 billion in 2040, and the annual net societal benefit including the social cost of carbon is estimated to be $1.7–8.8 billion in 2040. Adoption of a RON standard in the U.S. in place of the current antiknock index (AKI) may enable refineries to produce larger quantities of high-RON gasoline.