Responses of European forest ecosystems to 21 super(st) century climate: assessing changes in interannual variability and fire intensity

• Published in: IForest (Viterbo) 2011-04, Vol.4, p.82-99
• Main Authors: Dury, M, Hambuckers, A, Warnant, P, Henrot, A, Favre, E, Ouberdous, M, Francois, L
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 1971-7458
• DOI: 10.3832/ifor0572-004

Significant climatic changes are currently observed and, according to projections, will be strengthened over the 21st century throughout the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO sub(2) concentration. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the biodiversity and the functioning of natural ecosystems. The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model driven by the ARPEGE/Climate model under forcing from the A2 IPCC emission scenario is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on forest productivity and distribution as well as fire intensity over Europe. frequently than today. Regions with more severe droughts might also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency and intensity, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution. For instance, in the Mediterranean basin, the area burned by wildfire can be expected to increase by a factor of 3-5 at the end of the 21st century compared to present.