SUGGESTED STATISTICAL MODEL TO DETERMINE THE IMPORTANT VARIABLES WHICH CAUSE THE MOST FREQUENT CRIMES IN EGYPTIAN SOCIETY

This paper aims to suggest a statistical model to estimate the number of crimes and to determine the most important variables and factors that have positive impact on increasing number of drug and theft crimes. These crimes are the most frequent in the Egyptian society. The study covers the period f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Far East Journal of Theoretical Statistics 2013-08, Vol.44 (2), p.93-93
Main Authors: Moustafa, Moustafa Galal, Abdelaal, Medhat M A, Eisa, Mahmoud Mohamed
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Crime
Dependent variables
Drugs
Independent variables
Mathematical models
Regression
Statistical analysis
Theft
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Summary:This paper aims to suggest a statistical model to estimate the number of crimes and to determine the most important variables and factors that have positive impact on increasing number of drug and theft crimes. These crimes are the most frequent in the Egyptian society. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2010 monthly data. The dependent variable is the number of offenses for which the judgment was issued for each crime. The independent variables were formed in five groups, each group contains several independent variables. These groups are (1) crime type, (2) offender career, (3) offender gender, (4) offender age and (5) offender educational level. Four statistical models were applied: multiple linear regression, multilayer perceptron neural network, regression support vector machine and general regression neural network for each independent variables group via the dependent variable for each crime. Also, the factor analysis has been applied for each independent group, then these factors used as independent variables via the dependent variable using the four models. The results showed that the recommended model for the drug crime was RSVM using the factors and GRNN for theft crime using the factors.
ISSN:0972-0863