Aid Under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict

We estimate the causal effect of a large development program on conflict in the Philippines through a regression discontinuity design that exploits an arbitrary poverty threshold used to assign eligibility for the program. We find that barely eligible municipalities experienced a large increase in c...

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Published in:The American economic review 2014-06, Vol.104 (6), p.1833-1856
Main Authors: Crost, Benjamin, Felter, Joseph, Johnston, Patrick
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aid
Arbitrage
Armed conflict
Casualties
Civil war
Civil wars
Conflict
Control variables
Development banks
Economic development
Insurgency
Linear regression
Philippines
Political conflict
Poverty
Poverty alleviation
Project management
Regression analysis
Running
Shorter Papers
Studies
Violence
World Bank
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cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c492t-170030016db2edf662bb403d935bfbb801dd340ebbaff578dc0dc730fe00d49e3
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container_end_page 1856
container_issue 6
container_start_page 1833
container_title The American economic review
container_volume 104
creator Crost, Benjamin
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Johnston, Patrick
description We estimate the causal effect of a large development program on conflict in the Philippines through a regression discontinuity design that exploits an arbitrary poverty threshold used to assign eligibility for the program. We find that barely eligible municipalities experienced a large increase in conflict casualties compared to barely ineligible ones. This increase is mostly due to insurgent-initiated incidents in the early stages of program preparation. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents try to sabotage the program because its success would weaken their support in the population.
doi_str_mv 10.1257/aer.104.6.1833
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subjects Aid
Arbitrage
Armed conflict
Casualties
Civil war
Civil wars
Conflict
Control variables
Development banks
Economic development
Insurgency
Linear regression
Philippines
Political conflict
Poverty
Poverty alleviation
Project management
Regression analysis
Running
Shorter Papers
Studies
Violence
World Bank
title Aid Under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict
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