Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty: a visual approach

Decision problems at the strategic level tend to have multiple criteria and outcomes that are uncertain. Many of the current decision‐making tools are too simplistic to incorporate the important features. This paper considers a multicriteria decision‐making scenario in which the outcomes of the deci...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International transactions in operational research 2014-07, Vol.21 (4), p.525-540
Main Authors: Eiselt, H.A., Marianov, Vladimir
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Construction
Criteria
Decision making
Decision support systems
multicriteria decision making
Multiple criteria decision making
Operational research
Operations research
Risk
Studies
Uncertainty
Visual
Visualization
visualization technique
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Summary:Decision problems at the strategic level tend to have multiple criteria and outcomes that are uncertain. Many of the current decision‐making tools are too simplistic to incorporate the important features. This paper considers a multicriteria decision‐making scenario in which the outcomes of the decisions, evaluated on different criteria, are uncertain. The main contribution of this paper is the presentation of a tool that enables decision makers to visualize the expected payoff and likelihood that the payoff of a decision does not fall short of a preset target value. Furthermore, it presents decision makers with a tool that shows the tradeoff between expected payoff and downside risk. A variety of solution techniques are suggested that build upon this visualization.
ISSN:0969-6016
1475-3995
DOI:10.1111/itor.12073