The method of the medium-range forecast of air temperature in the area of the “Baikonur” cosmodrome

The statistical model of the forecast (complex postprocessing) of surface air temperature with the lead time up to eight days is constructed using the results of the integration of hydrodynamic atmospheric models. The model is adapted to the area of the “Baikonur” using the method of central typing...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Russian meteorology and hydrology 2014-06, Vol.39 (6), p.416-419
Main Authors: Shirshov, N. V., Vil’fand, R. M., Vasil’ev, P. P., Vasil’eva, E. L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air temperature
Atmospheric Sciences
Communications
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Meteorology
Spacecraft
Statistical models
Surface temperature
Temperature
Weather forecasting
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Summary:The statistical model of the forecast (complex postprocessing) of surface air temperature with the lead time up to eight days is constructed using the results of the integration of hydrodynamic atmospheric models. The model is adapted to the area of the “Baikonur” using the method of central typing that allows increasing the accuracy of operational forecasts. The analysis of climate characteristics needed for constructing the proper statistical model for this area is given using both observational data for recent 25 years and the data of WMO (from the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydro-meteorological Information-World Data Center). Computed are the estimates of the accuracy of operational forecasts.
ISSN:1068-3739
1934-8096
DOI:10.3103/S1068373914060089