Bayes Monte-Carlo Assessment Method of Protection Systems Reliability Based on Small Failure Sample Data

Reliability assessment methods that need large failure sample sets would face a bottleneck while the "high reliability" of the protection system is taken into account and would, therefore, directly affect the credibility of the assessment results. To overcome this inadequacy, a protection...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE transactions on power delivery 2014-08, Vol.29 (4), p.1841-1848
Main Authors: Dai, Zhihui, Wang, Zengping, Jiao, Yanjun
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Assessments
Bayesian analysis
Connection and protection apparatus
Electrical engineering. Electrical power engineering
Estimation
Exact sciences and technology
Failure
Failure analysis
Monte Carlo methods
Power system reliability
Protection systems
Protective relaying
reliability assessment
Reliability theory
Simulation
small failure sample
Testing. Reliability. Quality control
Weibull distribution
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Summary:Reliability assessment methods that need large failure sample sets would face a bottleneck while the "high reliability" of the protection system is taken into account and would, therefore, directly affect the credibility of the assessment results. To overcome this inadequacy, a protection system reliability assessment method based on small failure samples was proposed. First, after analyzing the operating characteristics of protection devices and its small failure sample data, the Weibull distribution was selected as the failure distribution through the goodness-of-fit test. Second, the parameters of the Weibull distribution were estimated by regression analysis, and Monte-Carlo simulation was used to determine the prior distribution of the Bayes estimation. The posterior probability and reliability indices were then obtained by using the Bayes theory. The case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the method.
ISSN:0885-8977
1937-4208
DOI:10.1109/TPWRD.2014.2316915