Understanding Convective Extreme Precipitation Scaling Using Observations and an Entraining Plume Model

Using a simple entraining plume model, an idealized deep convective environmental temperature profile is perturbed to analyze extreme precipitation scaling from a frequently used relation based on the column condensation rate. The plume model simulates a steady precipitation increase that is greater...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the atmospheric sciences 2013-11, Vol.70 (11), p.3641-3655
Main Authors: LORIAUX, Jessica M, LENDERINK, Geert, DE ROODE, Stephan R, SIEBESMA, A. Pier
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adiabatic
Adiabatic flow
Atmospheric stability
Atmospherics
Climatic extremes
Confidence intervals
Convective precipitation
Dynamic stability
Dynamics
Earth, ocean, space
Entrainment
Environmental changes
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Extreme weather
Future climates
General circulation models
Global warming
Hypotheses
Meteorology
Modelling
Moisture
Moisture effects
Perturbation
Perturbations
Physics of the high neutral atmosphere
Plume models
Plumes
Precipitation
Rainfall intensity
Scaling
Stability
Studies
Temperature
Temperature profile
Temperature profiles
Thermodynamics
Vertical velocities
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Summary:Using a simple entraining plume model, an idealized deep convective environmental temperature profile is perturbed to analyze extreme precipitation scaling from a frequently used relation based on the column condensation rate. The plume model simulates a steady precipitation increase that is greater than ClausiusClapeyron scaling (super-CC scaling). Precipitation intensity increase is shown to be controlled by a flux of moisture through the cloud base and in-cloud lateral moisture convergence. Decomposition of this scaling relation into a dominant thermodynamic and additional dynamic component allows for better understanding of the scaling and demonstrates the importance of vertical velocity in both dynamic and thermodynamic scaling. Furthermore, systematically increasing the environmental stability by adjusting the temperature perturbations from constant to moist adiabatic increase reveals a dependence of the scaling on the change in environmental stability. As the perturbations become increasingly close to moist adiabatic, the scaling found by the entraining plume model decreases to CC scaling. Thus, atmospheric stability changes, which are expected to be dependent on the latitude, may well play a key role in the behavior of precipitation extremes in the future climate.
ISSN:0022-4928
1520-0469
DOI:10.1175/jas-d-12-0317.1