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Bottom-up climate risk assessment of infrastructure investment in the Niger River Basin

The Niger River is the third largest river in the African continent. Nine riparian countries share its basin, which rank all among the world’s thirty poorest. Existing challenges in West Africa, including endemic poverty, inadequate infrastructure and weak adaptive capacity to climate variability, m...

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Published in:Climatic change 2014, Vol.122 (1-2), p.97-110
Main Authors: Ghile, Y. B., Taner, M. Ü., Brown, C., Grijsen, J. G., Talbi, Amal
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description The Niger River is the third largest river in the African continent. Nine riparian countries share its basin, which rank all among the world’s thirty poorest. Existing challenges in West Africa, including endemic poverty, inadequate infrastructure and weak adaptive capacity to climate variability, make the region vulnerable to climate change. In this study, a risk-based methodology is introduced and demonstrated for the analysis of climate change impacts on planned infrastructure investments in water resources systems in the Upper and Middle Niger River Basin. The methodology focuses on identifying the vulnerability of the Basin’s socio-economic system to climate change, and subsequently assessing the likelihood of climate risks by using climate information from a multi-run, multi-GCM ensemble of climate projections. System vulnerabilities are analyzed in terms of performance metrics of hydroelectricity production, navigation, dry and rainy season irrigated agriculture, flooding in the Inner Delta of the Niger and the sustenance of environmental flows. The study reveals low to moderate risks in terms of stakeholder-defined threshold levels for most metrics in the 21st Century. The highest risk levels were observed for environmental flow targets. The findings indicate that the range of projected changes in an ensemble of CMIP3 GCM projections imply only relatively low risks of unacceptable climate change impacts on the present large-scale infrastructure investment plan for the Basin.
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subjects 21st century
Atmospheric Sciences
Basins
Business metrics
Climate
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate variability
Dams
Drought
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics
Environmental engineering
Environmental impact
Environmental risk
Exact sciences and technology
Financing
Fisheries
Freshwater
Hydroelectric plants
Hydroelectric power
Hydrology
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Infrastructure
Investment
Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc
Poverty
Rain
Rainy season
Risk
Risk assessment
River basins
River ecology
Rivers
Water resources
Water supply engineering
title Bottom-up climate risk assessment of infrastructure investment in the Niger River Basin
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