Statistical Analysis of Long Term Trends of Rainfall During 1901–2002 at Assam, India

Rainfall is a principal element of the hydrological cycle and its variability is important from both the scientific as well as socio-economic point of view. This study presents an analysis based on the precipitation variation in Assam, India over 102 years from 1901 to 2002. Precipitation data from...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water resources management 2014-04, Vol.28 (6), p.1501-1515
Main Author: Goyal, Manish Kumar
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Annual precipitation
Atmospheric Sciences
Basins
Civil Engineering
Climate change
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Energy consumption
Environment
Exact sciences and technology
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hydrogeology
Hydrologic cycle
Hydrologic data
Hydrology
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Hydrology/Water Resources
India
monsoon season
Policies
Precipitation
Rain
Rainfall
seasonal variation
Seasonal variations
Slopes
Standardized precipitation index
Statistical analysis
Studies
summer
time series analysis
Trends
Water resources
Water resources management
Wind
winter
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Summary:Rainfall is a principal element of the hydrological cycle and its variability is important from both the scientific as well as socio-economic point of view. This study presents an analysis based on the precipitation variation in Assam, India over 102 years from 1901 to 2002. Precipitation data from 21 stations have been collected. These data have been analyzed for both annual and seasonal variation. For trend analysis, Mann-Kendell and Sen’s slope estimator test were used. To compare seasonal variations, three seasons of winter, summer and monsoon have been considered. Mean annual precipitation varied from 2,074 mm (at Tinsukia) to 3,538 mm (at North Chahar Hills). The most probable year of change was 1959 in annual precipitation. Time series of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) depict that near normal occurs in about 68 years out 102 years, and in 2.48 years out of 102 years there was an extreme wet. All these findings can help provide rational regulatory and policy in relation to water resources to maintain the health of the various ecosystems that make up Assam, India.
ISSN:0920-4741
1573-1650
DOI:10.1007/s11269-014-0529-y