On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones

There is some question as to whether the historical record of observed North Atlantic tropical cyclones prior to the advent of satellite coverage is complete. This question is central to understanding the historical trend in tropical cyclone activity and the effect of environmental factors on it. To...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2008-06, Vol.35 (11), p.np-n/a
Main Authors: Solow, Andrew R., Beet, Andrew R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Counting
Cyclones
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
Geophysics
Mathematical models
North Atlantic tropical cyclones
observation probability
Poisson regression model
Satellites
Sea surface temperature
Southern oscillation
Statistical analysis
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Summary:There is some question as to whether the historical record of observed North Atlantic tropical cyclones prior to the advent of satellite coverage is complete. This question is central to understanding the historical trend in tropical cyclone activity and the effect of environmental factors on it. To address this question, a statistical model of the relationship between annual cyclone counts between 1870 and 2004 and sea surface temperature and the state of the Southern Oscillation is extended to allow for non‐decreasing observation probability prior to 1966. The estimated observation probabilities increase from 0.72 in 1870 to 1 in 1964. Allowing for record incompleteness reduces the estimated effect of sea surface temperature on annual tropical cyclone activity.
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1029/2008GL033546