Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: A relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections

A multi‐model average shows that 21st century warming over the eastern Indian Ocean (IO) is slower than that to the west, but with strong inter‐model variations. Is the simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) relevant to these variations? We demonstrate that inter‐model variations of this future...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2011-02, Vol.38 (3), p.np-n/a
Main Authors: Cai, W., Sullivan, A., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J., Shi, G.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
climate projections
Computer simulation
Criteria
Dipoles
Earth
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
Indian Ocean
Indian Ocean Dipole
Marine
Oceans
Positive feedback
Projection
Regions
Sea surface temperature
Thermocline
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Summary:A multi‐model average shows that 21st century warming over the eastern Indian Ocean (IO) is slower than that to the west, but with strong inter‐model variations. Is the simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) relevant to these variations? We demonstrate that inter‐model variations of this future warming are consistent with how well models simulate historical IOD properties; models with a stronger IOD amplitude systematically produce a slower eastern IO warming rate with greater future rainfall changes in IOD‐affected regions. These models also produce a stronger Bjerknes‐like positive feedback, involving sea surface temperatures (SSTs), winds and a shoaling thermocline in the eastern IO. As warming proceeds, models with a stronger positive feedback induce a greater response to warming‐induced changes such as easterly trends associated with the Walker circulation, generating a smaller warming in the eastern IO. Simulating the present‐day IOD properties is, therefore, a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections.
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1029/2010GL046242