Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment using Copula modeling technique

A new probabilistic methodology for landslide hazard assessment in regional scale using Copula modeling technique is presented. The current probabilistic landslide hazard analyses are performed under the assumption that landslide hazard elements, such as magnitude, frequency, and location, are indep...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Landslides 2014-08, Vol.11 (4), p.565-573
Main Authors: Motamedi, Manouchehr, Liang, Robert Y.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
Civil Engineering
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Geography
Geological hazards
Hazard assessment
Hazards
Landslides
Landslides & mudslides
Mathematical models
Natural Hazards
Original Paper
Probabilistic methods
Probability
Probability theory
Slopes
Topography
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Summary:A new probabilistic methodology for landslide hazard assessment in regional scale using Copula modeling technique is presented. The current probabilistic landslide hazard analyses are performed under the assumption that landslide hazard elements, such as magnitude, frequency, and location, are independent. In this paper, a general approach is proposed to consider the possible dependence among hazard elements. Part of the Seattle, WA area was selected to evaluate the competence of the presented method. A total of 357 slope failure events and their corresponding topography and geology data were included in the study to develop and test the model. Based on the results, the mean success rates of the presented model in predicting landslide occurrence are 90 % in hazardous area and 12 % in safe locations on average, while these success rates are 63 and 44 % when these hazard elements were treated as mutually independent.
ISSN:1612-510X
1612-5118
DOI:10.1007/s10346-013-0399-z