Risks and uncertainties in reservoir yield in highly variable intermittent rivers: case of the Castanhão Reservoir in semi-arid Brazil

We analyse the risks and uncertainties in the assessment of reservoir yields in Northeast Brazil using Monte Carlo simulation. The case study considers the Castanhão Reservoir, which is located in the Jaguaribe River in the State of Ceará. The hydrologic regime of the reservoir inflow was obtained f...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Hydrological sciences journal 2014-06, Vol.59 (6), p.1184-1195
Main Authors: Campos, J.N.B., Souza Filho, F.A., Lima, H.V.C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Freshwater
incertitudes
rendement de réservoir
reservoir yield
risks
risques
semi-arid
semi-aride
uncertainties
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:We analyse the risks and uncertainties in the assessment of reservoir yields in Northeast Brazil using Monte Carlo simulation. The case study considers the Castanhão Reservoir, which is located in the Jaguaribe River in the State of Ceará. The hydrologic regime of the reservoir inflow was obtained from a 37-year historical series. From the data, 600 series of annual inflows for 30 years were generated. The operation of the reservoir was simulated to estimate the uncertainties and risks regarding the water supply by the reservoir. The variability of regulated streamflows with 30-year horizons, measured by their coefficients of variation, is 27%. It was also found that the mean probability of failure for the 600 traces, with a mean release equal to the mean yield and an assumed 10% risk of failure, was 12.5%, which is 25% greater than the value of 10% used to estimate the yield. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Blazkova Citation Campos, J.N.B., Souza Filho, F.A., and Lima, H.V.C., 2014. Risks and uncertainties in reservoir yield in highly variable intermittent rivers: case of the Castanhão Reservoir in semi-arid Brazil. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1184-1195. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.836277
ISSN:0262-6667
2150-3435
DOI:10.1080/02626667.2013.836277