The Value of High-Resolution Met Office Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of Multihourly Precipitation Extremes

• Published in: Journal of climate 2014-08, Vol.27 (16), p.6155-6174
• Main Authors: Chan, Steven C., Kendon, Elizabeth J., Fowler, Hayley J., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Roberts, Nigel M., Ferro, Christopher A. T.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accumulation; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Computer simulation; Convection; Convection modes; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Extreme value theory; Extreme values; Extreme weather; Floods; Gauges; Geophysics. Techniques, methods, instrumentation and models; Growth rate; High resolution; Meteorology; Modeling; Offices; Parametric models; Precipitation; Radar; Rain; RCM; Regional climate models; Regional climates; Resolution; Simulation; Simulations; Statistical methods; Storms; Studies; Time; Value analysis; Water in the atmosphere (humidity, clouds, evaporation, precipitation)
• ISSN: 0894-8755; 1520-0442
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-13-00723.1

Extreme value theory is used as a diagnostic for two high-resolution (12-km parameterized convection and 1.5-km explicit convection) Met Office regional climate model (RCM) simulations. On subdaily time scales, the 12-km simulation has weaker June–August (JJA) short-return-period return levels than the 1.5-km RCM, yet the 12-km RCM has overly large high return levels. Comparisons with observations indicate that the 1.5-km RCM is more successful than the 12-km RCM in representing (multi)hourly JJA very extreme events. As accumulation periods increase toward daily time scales, the erroneous 12-km precipitation extremes become more comparable with the observations and the 1.5-km RCM. The 12-km RCM fails to capture the observed low sensitivity of the growth rate to accumulation period changes, which is successfully captured by the 1.5-km RCM. Both simulations have comparable December–February (DJF) extremes, but the DJF extremes are generally weaker than in JJA at daily or shorter time scales. Case studies indicate that “gridpoint storms” are one of the causes of unrealistic very extreme events in the 12-km RCM. Caution is needed in interpreting the realism of 12-km RCM JJA extremes, including short-return-period events, which have return values closer to observations. There is clear evidence that the 1.5-km RCM has a higher degree of realism than the 12-km RCM in the simulation of JJA extremes.