Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981–2009

• Published in: Agricultural and forest meteorology 2014-06, Vol.189-190, p.91-104
• Main Authors: Tao, Fulu, Zhang, Zhao, Xiao, Dengpan, Zhang, Shuai, Rötter, Reimund P., Shi, Wenjiao, Liu, Yujie, Wang, Meng, Liu, Fengshan, Zhang, He
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adaptation; Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage; Agriculture; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Biological and medical sciences; China; Climate; Climate change; Crop; Crops; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agronomy. Plant production; Impact and adaptation; Phenology; Precipitation; System dynamics; Triticum aestivum; Wheat; Yield
• ISSN: 0168-1923; 1873-2240
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.013

•Experiment data on phenology and yield at 120 stations between 1981and 2009 were used.•Crop system dynamics were accounted for when quantifying climatic impacts on yield.•Anthesis date and maturity date advanced and whole growth period was shortened.•Reproductive growth duration was prolonged despite of negative impact of climate.•Climate change increased yield in northern China however reduced it southern China. The experiment observations at 120 agricultural meteorological stations spanning from 1981 to 2009 across China were used to accelerate understandings of the response of wheat growth and productivity to climate change in different climate zones, with panel regression models. We found climate during wheat growth period had changed significantly during 1981–2009, and the change had caused measurable impacts on wheat growth and yield in most of the zones. Wheat anthesis date and maturity date advanced significantly, and the lengths of growth period before anthesis and whole growth period were significantly shortened, however the length of reproductive growth period was significantly prolonged despite of the negative impacts of temperature increase. The increasing adoption of cultivars with longer reproductive growth period offset the negative impacts of climate change and increased yield. Changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation in the past three decades jointly increased wheat yield in northern China by 0.9–12.9%, however reduced wheat yield in southern China by 1.2–10.2%, with a large spatial difference. Our studies better represented crop system dynamics using detailed phenological records, consequently better accounted for adaptations such as shifts in sowing date and crop cultivars photo-thermal traits when quantifying climate impacts on wheat yield. Our findings suggest the response of wheat growth and yield to climate change is underway in China. The changes in crop system dynamics and cultivars traits have to be sufficiently taken into account to improve the prediction of climate impacts and to plan adaptations for future.