A stochastic weather generation model for Alaska

• Published in: Ecological modelling 1998-07, Vol.110 (3), p.211-232
• Main Authors: Skiles, J.W., Richardson, C.W.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Alaska; Earth, ocean, space; Ecosystem simulation; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Meteorology; Weather analysis and prediction; Weather generator
• ISSN: 0304-3800; 1872-7026
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00061-1

A specific problem encountered in ecosystem-level simulation of Arctic ecosystems is the depth and extent of the driving variable record. Often, climate records are of short duration, gathered at locations different from the area to be simulated, or do not contain all the variables required by a given model. This paper addresses this problem for ecosystem simulation in Alaska with the development of a weather generator. The generator, called WGENAL, is based on the WGEN climate generator developed and validated in the 48 conterminous states. Because of the extreme variability of weather in Alaska that is not accommodated by the statistical metrics in the earlier model, a new climate generator was developed. WGENAL generates daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, solar radiation, and wind run. Precipitation is generated using a Markov chain-gamma model. A two-parameter gamma distribution is used to generate wind run. Temperatures and solar radiation are generated using procedures developed in the earlier study. Validation of the generator shows it provides adequate diurnal and seasonal weather records for Fairbanks. Other comparisons of synthetic weather with observed weather for sites north of the Brooks Range in Alaska are also within the error of the original data.