Exploring the impact of evaluating strategic options in a scenario-based multi-criteria framework

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change 2013-05, Vol.80 (4), p.657-672
• Main Authors: Ram, Camelia, Montibeller, Gilberto
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Action Research; Behavioral decision theory; Certainty; Conflicting objectives; Decision Making; Decisions; Decisions under uncertainty; Multiple criteria decision making; Organization development; Public Sector; Robustness analysis; Scenario planning; Strategic planning; Studies; Trinidad and Tobago; Values
• ISSN: 0040-1625; 1873-5509
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.019

One of the least explored aspects of scenario planning is how to assess systematically the value and robustness of strategic options after scenario development. In this context, there is growing research interest on the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate such options, but with very limited evidence about its performance in practice. This paper examines effects of applying in practice one of those recently proposed scenario-based MCDA methods for identifying robust options. Three public sector decision-making instances in Trinidad and Tobago are examined within an action research framework to provide insights on differences in decision-making behaviour and areas for improvement of the method. Findings from these in-depth case studies indicate that the method's main benefit was that it stimulated curiosity on how options might be improved in order to mitigate negative consequences and capitalise on opportunities across scenarios. We conclude the paper by discussing these findings and their implications to the development of the method and the evaluation of strategic options under deep uncertainty. ► We describe three real applications of a scenario-based decision analytic approach. ► It develops a larger number of scenarios to assess the robustness of each strategy. ► We assess the impact of the decision support against the current decision practice. ► We suggest ways that the approach may be further improved given the findings.