Calculation and Evaluation of an Air-Freezing Index for the 1981–2010 Climate Normals Period in the Coterminous United States

The air-freezing index (AFI) is a common metric for determining the freezing severity of the winter season and estimating frost depth for midlatitude regions, which is useful for determining the depth of shallow foundation construction. AFI values represent the seasonal magnitude and duration of bel...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of applied meteorology and climatology 2015-01, Vol.54 (1), p.69-76
Main Authors: Bilotta, ROcky, Bell, Jesse E., Shepherd, Ethan, Arguez, Anthony
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air temperature
Climate
Climate change
Climatic zones
Climatology
Cold season
Construction costs
Ecosystems
Estimating
Freezing
Frost
Marine
Mathematical analysis
Meteors
Methodology
Seasons
Soil air
Soil depth
Soil microorganisms
Soil temperature regimes
Stations
Studies
Temperature
Winter
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Summary:The air-freezing index (AFI) is a common metric for determining the freezing severity of the winter season and estimating frost depth for midlatitude regions, which is useful for determining the depth of shallow foundation construction. AFI values represent the seasonal magnitude and duration of below-freezing air temperature. Departures of the daily mean temperature above or below 0°C (32°F) are accumulated over each August–July cold season; the seasonal AFI value is defined as the difference between the highest and lowest extrema points. Return periods are computed using generalized extreme value distribution analysis. This research replaces the methodology used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to calculate AFI return periods for the 1951–80 time period, applying the new methodology to the 1981–2010 climate normals period. Seasonal AFI values and return period values were calculated for 5600 stations across the coterminous United States (CONUS), and the results were validated using U.S. Climate Reference Network temperature data. Return period values are typically 14%–18% lower across CONUS during 1981–2010 versus a recomputation of 1951–80 return periods with the new methodology. For the 100-yr (2 yr) return periods, about 59% (83%) of stations show a decrease of more than 10% in the more recent period, whereas 21% (2%) show an increase of more than 10%, indicating a net reduction in winter severity that is consistent with observed climate change.
ISSN:1558-8424
1558-8432
DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0119.1