Demand, supply, and restraint: Determinants of domestic water conflict and cooperation

•Examination of how demand, supply, and restraint lead to domestic water conflict.•Also, study of how these factors may induce cooperation over domestic water resources.•Analysis of data on 35 Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, and Sahel countries in 1997–2009.•Demand-side drivers have a stronger impact...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Global environmental change 2014-11, Vol.29, p.337-348
Main Authors: Böhmelt, Tobias, Bernauer, Thomas, Buhaug, Halvard, Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Tribaldos, Theresa, Wischnath, Gerdis
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural productivity
Climate change
Climate variability
Constraints
Cooperation
Cross sections
Demand
Determinants
Domestic
Empirical analysis
Environmental change
Restraint
Risk
Supply
Supply and demand
Water conflict
Water cooperation
Water resources
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Summary:•Examination of how demand, supply, and restraint lead to domestic water conflict.•Also, study of how these factors may induce cooperation over domestic water resources.•Analysis of data on 35 Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, and Sahel countries in 1997–2009.•Demand-side drivers have a stronger impact on water conflict than supply-side factors.•Joint analysis of those factors improves ability to account for water conflict and cooperation. This article focuses on one of the most likely empirical manifestations of the “environment-conflict” claim by examining how demand for and supply of water may lead to domestic water conflict. It also studies what factors may reduce the risk of conflict and, hence, induce cooperation. To this end, the article advances several theory-based arguments about the determinants of water conflict and cooperation, and then analyzes time-series cross-section data for 35 Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, and Sahel countries between 1997 and 2009. The empirical results show that demand-side drivers, such as population pressure, agricultural productivity, and economic development are likely to have a stronger impact on water conflict risk than supply-side factors, represented by climate variability. The analysis also reveals that violent water conflicts are extremely rare, and that factors conducive to restraint, such as stable political conditions, may stimulate cooperation. Overall, these results suggest that the joint analysis of demand, supply, and restraint improves our ability to account for domestic water-related conflict and cooperation.
ISSN:0959-3780
1872-9495
DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.11.018