Probabilistic performance assessment of a coal-fired power plant

• Published in: Applied energy 2015-02, Vol.139, p.350-364
• Main Authors: Hanak, D.P., Kolios, A.J., Biliyok, C., Manovic, V.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Assessments; Coal fired powerplants; Coal-fired power plant; Electric power generation; Electric power plants; Equipment costs; Failure; Monte Carlo simulation; Operating costs; Performance assessment; Probabilistic performance assessment; Safety factors; Stochastic modelling; Stochastic response surface method
• ISSN: 0306-2619; 1872-9118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.10.079

•Power plant equipment is usually oversized to account for input uncertainties.•Oversized equipment degrades its rated efficiency and increases capital cost.•A stochastic methodology to assess probabilities of equipment failure was proposed.•The methodology was proven applicable for design and analysis of the power plants.•Estimated high reliability indices allow reducing power plant equipment oversizing. Despite the low-carbon environmental policies, coal is expected to remain a main source of energy in the coming decades. Therefore, efficient and environmentally friendly power systems are required. A design process based on the deterministic models and application of the safety factors leads to the equipment oversizing, hence fall in the efficiency and increase in the capital and operating costs. In this work, applicability of a non-intrusive stochastic methodology to determine the probability of the power plant equipment failure was investigated. This alternative approach to the power plant performance assessment employs approximation methods for the deterministic prediction of the key performance indicators, which are used to estimate reliability indices based on the uncertainty of the input to a process model of the coal-fired power plant. This study revealed that high reliability indices obtained in the analysis would lead to reduced application of conservative safety factors on the plant equipment, which should result in lower capital and operating cost, through a more reliable assessment of its performance state over its service time, and lead to the optimisation of its inspection and maintenance interventions.