A factor-based probabilistic cost model to support bid-price estimation

• Published in: Expert systems with applications 2012-04, Vol.39 (5), p.5358-5366
• Main Authors: Wang, Wei-Chih, Wang, Shih-Hsu, Tsui, Yu-Kun, Hsu, Ching-Hsiang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Approximation; Bidding; Contractors; Cost division; Cost engineering; Division; Expert systems; Factors; Housing; Probabilistic cost; Probabilistic methods; Probability theory; Residential housing project; Simulation
• ISSN: 0957-4174; 1873-6793
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.11.049

An appropriate bid price is essential for winning a construction project contract. However, making an accurate cost estimate is both time-consuming and expensive. Thus, a method that does not take much time and can approximate a proper bid price can help a contractor in making bid-price decisions when the available bid-estimation time is insufficient. Such a method can also generate a target cost and provide a cross-check for their bid prices that were estimated using a detailed process. This study proposes a novel model for quickly making a bid-price estimation that integrates a probabilistic cost sub-model and a multi-factor evaluation sub-model. The cost sub-model, which is simulation-based, focuses on the cost divisions to save estimation time. At the same time, the multi-factor evaluation sub-model captures the specific factors affecting the cost of each cost division. The advantages of the proposed model are demonstrated by its application to three residential housing projects located in northern Taiwan. The steps for applying this model to other contractors are also provided.