A Combined Model of Global Cultivated Area Change and Prediction for Future: 1961–2020

As a basic condition for food safety, cultivated area fluctuates in recent years. So, it has important political and economical significance to understand the future change trend of global cultivated area. Based on historical data in the past 50 years, deterministic time series analysis model, rando...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:ISRN applied mathematics 2013-12, Vol.2013, p.1-7
Main Authors: Wang, Cheng-Jun, Fei, Xi-Min
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Economics
Fittings
Fluctuation
Foods
Mathematical models
Safety
Time series analysis
Trends
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Summary:As a basic condition for food safety, cultivated area fluctuates in recent years. So, it has important political and economical significance to understand the future change trend of global cultivated area. Based on historical data in the past 50 years, deterministic time series analysis model, random time series analysis model, and combined model were established by using time series analysis method. By comparison, the combined model has the highest fitting and prediction accuracy, and it is suitable for the prediction of global cultivated area change trend. The global cultivated area will rise slightly in fluctuation in the near future driven by a combination of deterministic factors and random factors.
ISSN:2090-5572
2090-5572
DOI:10.1155/2013/125260