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An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
A spatially explicit agent-based vehicle consumer choice model is developed to explore sensitivities and nonlinear interactions between various potential influences on plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) market penetration. The model accounts for spatial and social effects (including threshold effects, ho...
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Published in: | Energy policy 2011-06, Vol.39 (6), p.3789-3802 |
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creator | Eppstein, Margaret J. Grover, David K. Marshall, Jeffrey S. Rizzo, Donna M. |
description | A spatially explicit agent-based vehicle consumer choice model is developed to explore sensitivities and nonlinear interactions between various potential influences on plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) market penetration. The model accounts for spatial and social effects (including threshold effects, homophily, and conformity) and media influences. Preliminary simulations demonstrate how such a model could be used to identify nonlinear interactions among potential leverage points, inform policies affecting PHEV market penetration, and help identify future data collection necessary to more accurately model the system. We examine sensitivity of the model to gasoline prices, to accuracy in estimation of fuel costs, to agent willingness to adopt the PHEV technology, to PHEV purchase price and rebates, to PHEV battery range, and to heuristic values related to gasoline usage. Our simulations indicate that PHEV market penetration could be enhanced significantly by providing consumers with ready estimates of expected lifetime fuel costs associated with different vehicles (e.g., on vehicle stickers), and that increases in gasoline prices could nonlinearly magnify the impact on fleet efficiency. We also infer that a potential synergy from a gasoline tax with proceeds is used to fund research into longer-range lower-cost PHEV batteries.
► We model consumer agents to study potential market penetration of PHEVs. ► The model accounts for spatial, social, and media effects. ► We identify interactions among potential leverage points that could inform policy. ► Consumer access to expected lifetime fuel costs may enhance PHEV market penetration. ► Increasing PHEV battery range has synergistic effects on fleet efficiency. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.04.007 |
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► We model consumer agents to study potential market penetration of PHEVs. ► The model accounts for spatial, social, and media effects. ► We identify interactions among potential leverage points that could inform policy. ► Consumer access to expected lifetime fuel costs may enhance PHEV market penetration. ► Increasing PHEV battery range has synergistic effects on fleet efficiency.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0301-4215</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1873-6777</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.04.007</identifier><identifier>CODEN: ENPYAC</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Kidlington: Elsevier Ltd</publisher><subject>Agent-based model ; Applied sciences ; Battery ; Computer simulation ; Consumer behavior ; Economic data ; Electric energy ; Energy ; Energy economics ; Energy policy ; Exact sciences and technology ; Gasoline ; Gasoline prices ; General, economic and professional studies ; Hybrid vehicles ; Market penetration ; Markets ; Methodology. Modelling ; Nonlinearity ; Penetration ; Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles ; Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles Market penetration Agent-based model ; Simulation ; Studies ; Vehicles</subject><ispartof>Energy policy, 2011-06, Vol.39 (6), p.3789-3802</ispartof><rights>2011 Elsevier Ltd</rights><rights>2014 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>Copyright Elsevier Science Ltd. Jun 2011</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c516t-38b792ddcca7967e06b68fa3f50ea099dbcede9fb2a826ac000a81bbd561f5ce3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c516t-38b792ddcca7967e06b68fa3f50ea099dbcede9fb2a826ac000a81bbd561f5ce3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27866,27924,27925,33223</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=24223205$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttp://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeenepol/v_3a39_3ay_3a2011_3ai_3a6_3ap_3a3789-3802.htm$$DView record in RePEc$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Eppstein, Margaret J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Grover, David K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Marshall, Jeffrey S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rizzo, Donna M.</creatorcontrib><title>An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles</title><title>Energy policy</title><description>A spatially explicit agent-based vehicle consumer choice model is developed to explore sensitivities and nonlinear interactions between various potential influences on plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) market penetration. The model accounts for spatial and social effects (including threshold effects, homophily, and conformity) and media influences. Preliminary simulations demonstrate how such a model could be used to identify nonlinear interactions among potential leverage points, inform policies affecting PHEV market penetration, and help identify future data collection necessary to more accurately model the system. We examine sensitivity of the model to gasoline prices, to accuracy in estimation of fuel costs, to agent willingness to adopt the PHEV technology, to PHEV purchase price and rebates, to PHEV battery range, and to heuristic values related to gasoline usage. Our simulations indicate that PHEV market penetration could be enhanced significantly by providing consumers with ready estimates of expected lifetime fuel costs associated with different vehicles (e.g., on vehicle stickers), and that increases in gasoline prices could nonlinearly magnify the impact on fleet efficiency. We also infer that a potential synergy from a gasoline tax with proceeds is used to fund research into longer-range lower-cost PHEV batteries.
► We model consumer agents to study potential market penetration of PHEVs. ► The model accounts for spatial, social, and media effects. ► We identify interactions among potential leverage points that could inform policy. ► Consumer access to expected lifetime fuel costs may enhance PHEV market penetration. ► Increasing PHEV battery range has synergistic effects on fleet efficiency.</description><subject>Agent-based model</subject><subject>Applied sciences</subject><subject>Battery</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Consumer behavior</subject><subject>Economic data</subject><subject>Electric energy</subject><subject>Energy</subject><subject>Energy economics</subject><subject>Energy policy</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>Gasoline</subject><subject>Gasoline prices</subject><subject>General, economic and professional studies</subject><subject>Hybrid vehicles</subject><subject>Market penetration</subject><subject>Markets</subject><subject>Methodology. Modelling</subject><subject>Nonlinearity</subject><subject>Penetration</subject><subject>Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles</subject><subject>Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles Market penetration Agent-based model</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Vehicles</subject><issn>0301-4215</issn><issn>1873-6777</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2011</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>7TQ</sourceid><sourceid>8BJ</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kc1q3DAUhU1podO0T9CNKBS68eRKsiV50UUI6Q8MZJOuhSxdZzT1SK5kD8zbV86ELLqo4EqLe87h8KmqPlLYUqDi-rDFMMVxy4DSLTRbAPmq2lAleS2klK-rDXCgdcNo-7Z6l_MBABrVNZvq4SYQ84hhrnuT0ZFjdDiSOZI8L-5Mjib9xplMGHBOZvYxkDiQaVweax_I_twn7wiOaOfkLTnh3tsR8_vqzWDGjB-e36vq17e7h9sf9e7--8_bm11tWyrmmqtedsw5a43shEQQvVCD4UMLaKDrXG_RYTf0zCgmjC2ljaJ971pBh9Yiv6q-XHKnFP8smGd99NniOJqAccmaCkl51zZKFOmnf6SHuKRQ2mklQTSNglXELyKbYs4JBz0lXxCcNQW9gtYH_QRar6A1NLqALq7dxZVwQvtiwXICruKT5oZ35TqXeXJy48uIMtO6k6psFTC9n48l7vNzU5OtGYdkgvX5JZY1jHEGbdF9veiwED55TDpbj6Eg86n8h3bR_7f2X3h8ruQ</recordid><startdate>20110601</startdate><enddate>20110601</enddate><creator>Eppstein, Margaret J.</creator><creator>Grover, David K.</creator><creator>Marshall, Jeffrey S.</creator><creator>Rizzo, Donna M.</creator><general>Elsevier Ltd</general><general>Elsevier</general><general>Elsevier Science Ltd</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>DKI</scope><scope>X2L</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SP</scope><scope>7TA</scope><scope>7TB</scope><scope>7TQ</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>DHY</scope><scope>DON</scope><scope>F28</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>JG9</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>7SU</scope><scope>C1K</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20110601</creationdate><title>An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles</title><author>Eppstein, Margaret J. ; Grover, David K. ; Marshall, Jeffrey S. ; Rizzo, Donna M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c516t-38b792ddcca7967e06b68fa3f50ea099dbcede9fb2a826ac000a81bbd561f5ce3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2011</creationdate><topic>Agent-based model</topic><topic>Applied sciences</topic><topic>Battery</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Consumer behavior</topic><topic>Economic data</topic><topic>Electric energy</topic><topic>Energy</topic><topic>Energy economics</topic><topic>Energy policy</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>Gasoline</topic><topic>Gasoline prices</topic><topic>General, economic and professional studies</topic><topic>Hybrid vehicles</topic><topic>Market penetration</topic><topic>Markets</topic><topic>Methodology. Modelling</topic><topic>Nonlinearity</topic><topic>Penetration</topic><topic>Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles</topic><topic>Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles Market penetration Agent-based model</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Vehicles</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Eppstein, Margaret J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Grover, David K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Marshall, Jeffrey S.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rizzo, Donna M.</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>RePEc IDEAS</collection><collection>RePEc</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Electronics & Communications Abstracts</collection><collection>Materials Business File</collection><collection>Mechanical & Transportation Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>PAIS Index</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>PAIS International</collection><collection>PAIS International (Ovid)</collection><collection>ANTE: Abstracts in New Technology & Engineering</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>International Bibliography of the Social Sciences</collection><collection>Materials Research Database</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Environmental Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><jtitle>Energy policy</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Eppstein, Margaret J.</au><au>Grover, David K.</au><au>Marshall, Jeffrey S.</au><au>Rizzo, Donna M.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles</atitle><jtitle>Energy policy</jtitle><date>2011-06-01</date><risdate>2011</risdate><volume>39</volume><issue>6</issue><spage>3789</spage><epage>3802</epage><pages>3789-3802</pages><issn>0301-4215</issn><eissn>1873-6777</eissn><coden>ENPYAC</coden><abstract>A spatially explicit agent-based vehicle consumer choice model is developed to explore sensitivities and nonlinear interactions between various potential influences on plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) market penetration. The model accounts for spatial and social effects (including threshold effects, homophily, and conformity) and media influences. Preliminary simulations demonstrate how such a model could be used to identify nonlinear interactions among potential leverage points, inform policies affecting PHEV market penetration, and help identify future data collection necessary to more accurately model the system. We examine sensitivity of the model to gasoline prices, to accuracy in estimation of fuel costs, to agent willingness to adopt the PHEV technology, to PHEV purchase price and rebates, to PHEV battery range, and to heuristic values related to gasoline usage. Our simulations indicate that PHEV market penetration could be enhanced significantly by providing consumers with ready estimates of expected lifetime fuel costs associated with different vehicles (e.g., on vehicle stickers), and that increases in gasoline prices could nonlinearly magnify the impact on fleet efficiency. We also infer that a potential synergy from a gasoline tax with proceeds is used to fund research into longer-range lower-cost PHEV batteries.
► We model consumer agents to study potential market penetration of PHEVs. ► The model accounts for spatial, social, and media effects. ► We identify interactions among potential leverage points that could inform policy. ► Consumer access to expected lifetime fuel costs may enhance PHEV market penetration. ► Increasing PHEV battery range has synergistic effects on fleet efficiency.</abstract><cop>Kidlington</cop><pub>Elsevier Ltd</pub><doi>10.1016/j.enpol.2011.04.007</doi><tpages>14</tpages></addata></record> |
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source | International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS); ScienceDirect Journals; PAIS Index |
subjects | Agent-based model Applied sciences Battery Computer simulation Consumer behavior Economic data Electric energy Energy Energy economics Energy policy Exact sciences and technology Gasoline Gasoline prices General, economic and professional studies Hybrid vehicles Market penetration Markets Methodology. Modelling Nonlinearity Penetration Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles Market penetration Agent-based model Simulation Studies Vehicles |
title | An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles |
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