Effects of fuel efficiency improvements in personal transportation: Case of four‐wheelers in India

• Published in: International journal of energy sector management 2012-01, Vol.6 (3), p.397-416
• Main Authors: Menon, Balagopal G, Mahanty, Biswajit
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Automobiles; Emission analysis; Fuel consumption; Fuels; Imports; Ownership; Policies; System dynamics
• ISSN: 1750-6220
• DOI: 10.1108/17506221211259646

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of the effects of fuel efficiency improvements on four-wheeler ownership, fuel consumption, fuel imports and emissions for personal transportation in the context of India. The paper also aims to measure the rebound effect induced by this policy. Design/methodology/approach - The paper relies on a system dynamics model to analyse the problem. A causal loop model was developed initially, which was transformed to a stock and flow diagram. Simulation was carried out to capture the effects of fuel efficiency improvements in the four-wheeler sector of India. Findings - The study has revealed that a policy of fuel efficiency improvements is favourable to the Indian four-wheeler sector growth, but this policy could result in an increase in fuel consumption and therefore a corresponding increase in the fuel imports and emissions in the country. This policy also induces direct rebound effect that adds up to the already alarming fuel consumption levels. Research limitations/implications - The study is limited to four-wheeler passenger cars in India and gasoline as the transport fuel. Originality/value - The paper offers a system dynamics model that can aid the government, vehicle manufacturers, and environment protection groups to further analyse policies regarding fuel efficiency improvements, fuel price adjustments, four-wheeler ownership, energy consumption and emission, and to obtain some useful policy insights before those policies are implemented.