Implications of paradigm shift in Japan’s electricity security of supply: A multi-dimensional indicator assessment

•Modelled hourly electricity supply/demand balance under different energy mixes in Japan.•Evaluation of electricity security of supply indicators for baseline and alternative generation mixes.•Demonstrated security improvements for high share of renewables and nuclear phase-out.•Structure of supply...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Applied energy 2014-06, Vol.123, p.424-434
Main Authors: Portugal-Pereira, Joana, Esteban, Miguel
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Assessments
Electricity
Electricity generation portfolios
Energy (nuclear)
Energy security of supply
Fossil fuels
Hourly supply/demand balance
Indicators
Japan
Nuclear power
Renewable energy
Security
Strategy
Thermoelectricity
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Summary:•Modelled hourly electricity supply/demand balance under different energy mixes in Japan.•Evaluation of electricity security of supply indicators for baseline and alternative generation mixes.•Demonstrated security improvements for high share of renewables and nuclear phase-out.•Structure of supply sector might have to dramatically change to guarantee system reliability. The present study developed a series of indicators to assess the electricity generation security of supply under different energy portfolios in Japan in a post-3/11 context. A baseline and four alternative scenarios were designed assuming different shares of fossil fuel and nuclear thermal power and renewables in a 2030 timeframe. The analysis revealed that expanding endogenous energy resources together with a reduction of nuclear power and fossil fuel technologies appears to be a promising strategy to enhance electricity security of supply. Under this strategy imported fossil fuel dependence would decrease to 69.3%, whereas environmental impacts would decline 15–22%, compared to pre-Fukushima levels (baseline scenario). However, an immediate transition to grid-connected renewable energies is not realistic and would increase stress on the system reliability in the short-term, given infrastructure and technical constraints. Investment should be channelised to develop storage and back-up systems, as well as de-centralisation of supply systems to increase energy system resilience and security of supply.
ISSN:0306-2619
1872-9118
DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.01.024