Annular mode changes in the CMIP5 simulations

We investigate simulated changes in the annular modes in historical and RCP 4.5 scenario simulations of 37 models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), a much larger ensemble of models than has previously been used to investigate annular mode trends, with improved resolution...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2013-03, Vol.40 (6), p.1189-1193
Main Authors: Gillett, N. P., Fyfe, J. C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aerosols
Annular
annular modes
Climate models
CMIP5
Computer simulation
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
Geophysics
Irradiance
Marine
Meteorology
NAM
NAO
North Atlantic oscillation
SAM
Seasons
Simulation
Volcanoes
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Summary:We investigate simulated changes in the annular modes in historical and RCP 4.5 scenario simulations of 37 models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), a much larger ensemble of models than has previously been used to investigate annular mode trends, with improved resolution and forcings. The CMIP5 models on average simulate increases in the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in every season by 2100, and no CMIP5 model simulates a significant decrease in either the NAM or SAM in any season. No significant increase in the NAM or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is simulated in response to volcanic aerosol, and no significant NAM or NAO response to solar irradiance variations is simulated. The CMIP5 models simulate a significant negative SAM response to volcanic aerosol in MAM and JJA, and a significant positive SAM response to solar irradiance variations in MAM, JJA and DJF. Key Points CMIP5 models simulate increases in the NAM and SAM in every season by 2100 There is no significant NAM or NAO increase in response to volcanoes in CMIP5 There is a significant SAM response to solar irradiance variations in CMIP5
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/grl.50249