ASYMMETRIC PHASE SHIFTS IN U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CYCLES

We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: tr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The review of economics and statistics 2015-03, Vol.97 (1), p.116-133
Main Authors: Chang, Yongsung, Hwang, Sunoong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Economic theory
Federal Reserve monetary policy
Government spending
Industrial production
Input output analysis
Macroeconomics
Manufacturers
Manufacturing
Manufacturing industry
Monetary policy
Oil price
Public expenditure
Studies
U.S.A
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Summary:We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.
ISSN:0034-6535
1530-9142
DOI:10.1162/REST_a_00436