Future increase of supertyphoon intensity associated with climate change

• Published in: Geophysical research letters 2015-01, Vol.42 (2), p.646-652
• Main Authors: Tsuboki, Kazuhisa, Yoshioka, Mayumi K., Shinoda, Taro, Kato, Masaya, Kanada, Sachie, Kitoh, Akio
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate; Climate change; cloud-resolving model; Computer simulation; Cyclones; downscale simulation experiment; Experiments; Finite element method; Global climate; Global warming; High resolution; History; Hurricanes; Latitude; Parametrization; supertyphoon; Tropical climate; Tropical cyclone intensities; Tropical cyclones; typhoon maximum intensity; Typhoons; Wind speed
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061793

Increases of tropical cyclone intensity with global warming have been demonstrated by historical data studies and theory. This raises great concern regarding future changes in typhoon intensity. The present study addressed the problem to what extent supertyphoons will become intense in the global warming climate of the late 21st century. Very high resolution downscale experiments using a cloud‐resolving model without convective parameterizations were performed for the 30 most intense typhoons obtained from the 20 km mesh global simulation of a warmer climate. Twelve supertyphoons occurred in the downscale experiments, and the most intense supertyphoon attained a central pressure of 857 hPa and a wind speed of 88 m s−1. The maximum intensity of the supertyphoon was little affected by uncertainties that arise from experimental settings. This study indicates that the most intense future supertyphoon could attain wind speeds of 85–90 m s−1 and minimum central pressures of 860 hPa. Key Points Very high resolution downscale experiments of future typhoons were performed Substantial increase of supertyphoon intensity in the future was projected Some supertyphoons reach higher latitude while maintaining their intensity