Chances of Short-Term Cooling Estimated from a Selection of CMIP5-Based Climate Scenarios during 2006–35 over Canada

• Published in: Journal of climate 2015-04, Vol.28 (8), p.3232-3249
• Main Authors: Grenier, Patrick, de Elía, Ramón, Chaumont, Diane
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Annual temperatures; Anthropogenic factors; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climatic zones; Cooling; Geoengineering; Global climate; Global climate models; Global warming; Histograms; Interannual variability; Meteorology; Methods; Modeling; Natural variability; Seasonal variations; Seasonality; Simulation; Simulations; Studies; Temperature; Temperature trends; Time series; Trends; Variability
• ISSN: 0894-8755; 1520-0442
• DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00224.1

The path toward a warmer global climate is not smooth, but, rather, is made up of a succession of positive and negative temperature trends, with cooling having more chance to occur the shorter the time scale considered. In this paper, estimates of the probabilities of short-term cooling (P cool) during the period 2006–35 are performed for 5146 locations across Canada. Probabilities of cooling over durations from 5 to 25 yr come from an ensemble of 60 climate scenarios, based on three different methods using a gridded observational product and CMIP5 climate simulations. These methods treat interannual variability differently, and an analysis in hindcast mode suggests they are relatively reliable. Unsurprisingly, longer durations imply smallerP coolvalues; in the case of annual temperatures, the interdecile range ofP coolvalues across Canada is, for example, ∼2%–18% for 25 yr and ∼40%–46% for 5 yr. Results vary slightly with the scenario design method, with similar geographical patterns emerging. With regards to seasonal influence, spring and winter are generally associated with higherP coolvalues. GeographicalP coolpatterns and their seasonality are explained in terms of the interannual variability over background trend ratio. This study emphasizes the importance of natural variability superimposed on anthropogenically forced long-term trends and the fact that regional and local short-term cooling trends are to be expected with nonnegligible probabilities.